2 out of 3 ats on the thanksgiving day games, which isn't bad but obviously could be better. Lets try to do better with the rest of this weeks action.
HANDICAP PICKS
New York Jets -9 vs Buffalo
Atlanta -9 vs Minnesota
Seattle -3.5 vs Washington
MONEYLINE PICKS
Arizona 5/4 @ St Louis
Tampa Bay 17/10 @ Tennessee
Indianapolis 6/4 vs Carolina
TOTALS PICKS
Chicago @ Oakland OVER 41
New England @ Philly UNDER 50.5
Pittsburgh @ Kansas City UNDER 40
Friday, 25 November 2011
Tuesday, 22 November 2011
Thanksgiving Day NFL & an Update
Thursday is Thanksgiving day in the good ol' US of A. The day when everyone in America eats turkey, watches the Lions get thrashed, maybe watches Dallas in hope that they lose too, and then gets ready to raid the shops on black Friday. What it means for us is the chance to have a Thanksgiving day Trixie
Green Bay @ Detriot
THE THANKSGIVING GAME. The Lions were in danger of losing their gig as thanksgiving hosts a couple of years ago, but now they are competitive again that threat seems to have disappeared. This game should be anything but boring with Detriot averaging 30 points a game and the Pack averaging 35, both sides have also given up around 100 points in their last 4 games. That suggests that it could be a tight game BUT Green Bay tends to give up the majority of their points in garbage time, which in the Packs case is most of the 2nd half. I sense a similar pattern to this game but this time there will be no slacking off from Green Bay as every one of the players will be keen to get their hands on the coveted Fox Galloping Gobbler award.
PICK: I can't have confidence in a side that hasn't beaten a good team all year and gave up 35 points to a team who threw 4 picks last week. Rodgers wont throw 4 picks, Green Bay -6
Miami @ Dallas
Part 2 of the Thanksgiving trilogy is at JerryDome as the resurgent Dolphins take on T RO & Co. I never thought Miami were a contender in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and think they have the quality to be a .500 team which if they had beaten Cleveland in week 3 and not felt the force of GOD in Tebows homecoming they would be. However there is a common theme amongst these teams, their passing game is awful and has been unable to take advantage of Miami's massive weakness, their pass defence. Tony Romo with Bryant, Witten and Robinson, plus DeMarco Murray providing great support in the running game should be able to exploit it and prove too strong.
PICK: Miami's revival stops here, Dallas -7 @ Evens
San Francisco @ Baltimore
The late game sees the Harbaugh lead 49ers make the ridiculously unfair 5 hour flight East on a very short week to take on the unpredictable Harbaugh lead Ravens. Actually maybe the Ravens aren't that unpredictable, They will play well against and beat the good teams, and will lose to the rags. The is a huge game for both team with Baltimore in a tussle with the Steelers for the division and possible home advantage and the 49ers need to keep winning to secure at least the No2 seed in the play offs. I've a sneaky suspicion that the Saints might pinch the No2 seeding and for that to happen the 49ers go down here.
PICK: The Ravens beat good teams, San Fran are a good team on a very short week, Baltimore -3.5 @ Evens
Check back on Friday for the weekend selections
Thanksgiving song of the day
PLAYER SPECIALS UPDATE
At the start of the season i gave 4 tips for the season top rusher and 4 for the top receiver and with everyone now having had their bye weeks now is a good time to check their progress.
Top Rusher
Advised
Maurice Jones Drew 16/1, Currently 2nd with 941yds, 78 yds behind LeSean McCoy
Michael Turner 12/1, 5th on 888yds, 38yds behind 4th place.
Darren McFadden 25/1, 16th on 641 yards. I said at the start of the season that the price was based on his injury record and he was a great price if he could stay healthy, he was the leading rusher when i posted the first update, but he couldn't stay healthy.
Ahmad Bradshaw 66/1, 29th on 440yds, injured aswell although was unlikely to threaten
Top Reveiver
Advised
Calvin Johnson 10/1, Currently in 3rd with 974 yds. Welker leads with 1028 and Steve Smith of Carolina is 2nd with 992.
Mike Wallace 12/1, 4th on 922 yds
Dwayne Bowe 33/1, 12th on 750 yds, wont be threatening with Palko at QB.
Brandon Marshall 33/1, 13th on 747yds, Moore is doing ok but he's probably too far behind.
I am not posting an update on my divison winner bets becuase in general, they stink.
Green Bay @ Detriot
THE THANKSGIVING GAME. The Lions were in danger of losing their gig as thanksgiving hosts a couple of years ago, but now they are competitive again that threat seems to have disappeared. This game should be anything but boring with Detriot averaging 30 points a game and the Pack averaging 35, both sides have also given up around 100 points in their last 4 games. That suggests that it could be a tight game BUT Green Bay tends to give up the majority of their points in garbage time, which in the Packs case is most of the 2nd half. I sense a similar pattern to this game but this time there will be no slacking off from Green Bay as every one of the players will be keen to get their hands on the coveted Fox Galloping Gobbler award.
PICK: I can't have confidence in a side that hasn't beaten a good team all year and gave up 35 points to a team who threw 4 picks last week. Rodgers wont throw 4 picks, Green Bay -6
 |
| This is whats it's allllllll about |
Part 2 of the Thanksgiving trilogy is at JerryDome as the resurgent Dolphins take on T RO & Co. I never thought Miami were a contender in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and think they have the quality to be a .500 team which if they had beaten Cleveland in week 3 and not felt the force of GOD in Tebows homecoming they would be. However there is a common theme amongst these teams, their passing game is awful and has been unable to take advantage of Miami's massive weakness, their pass defence. Tony Romo with Bryant, Witten and Robinson, plus DeMarco Murray providing great support in the running game should be able to exploit it and prove too strong.
PICK: Miami's revival stops here, Dallas -7 @ Evens
 |
| Give us a gobble |
The late game sees the Harbaugh lead 49ers make the ridiculously unfair 5 hour flight East on a very short week to take on the unpredictable Harbaugh lead Ravens. Actually maybe the Ravens aren't that unpredictable, They will play well against and beat the good teams, and will lose to the rags. The is a huge game for both team with Baltimore in a tussle with the Steelers for the division and possible home advantage and the 49ers need to keep winning to secure at least the No2 seed in the play offs. I've a sneaky suspicion that the Saints might pinch the No2 seeding and for that to happen the 49ers go down here.
PICK: The Ravens beat good teams, San Fran are a good team on a very short week, Baltimore -3.5 @ Evens
Check back on Friday for the weekend selections
Thanksgiving song of the day
PLAYER SPECIALS UPDATE
At the start of the season i gave 4 tips for the season top rusher and 4 for the top receiver and with everyone now having had their bye weeks now is a good time to check their progress.
Top Rusher
Advised
Maurice Jones Drew 16/1, Currently 2nd with 941yds, 78 yds behind LeSean McCoy
Michael Turner 12/1, 5th on 888yds, 38yds behind 4th place.
Darren McFadden 25/1, 16th on 641 yards. I said at the start of the season that the price was based on his injury record and he was a great price if he could stay healthy, he was the leading rusher when i posted the first update, but he couldn't stay healthy.
Ahmad Bradshaw 66/1, 29th on 440yds, injured aswell although was unlikely to threaten
Top Reveiver
Advised
Calvin Johnson 10/1, Currently in 3rd with 974 yds. Welker leads with 1028 and Steve Smith of Carolina is 2nd with 992.
Mike Wallace 12/1, 4th on 922 yds
Dwayne Bowe 33/1, 12th on 750 yds, wont be threatening with Palko at QB.
Brandon Marshall 33/1, 13th on 747yds, Moore is doing ok but he's probably too far behind.
I am not posting an update on my divison winner bets becuase in general, they stink.
Thursday, 17 November 2011
NFL WEEK 11
Last week saw us back to winning ways thanks to all 3 handicap picks doing the business. Now showing 23.38 pts profit for 3 weekly trixies and 23.675 pts profit for level stakes singles
HANDICAP PICKS
Oakland -1 @ Minnesota
The Carson Palmer version of the Raiders got going last Thursday with an impressive win at the Super Chargers while the Vikings were absolutely dredful on Monday, albeit at Green Bay. -1 is a steal on the Raiders who are 3-1 on the road.
St Louis -1 vs Seattle
I feel that the Rams are coming around and they can ride Steven Jackson to a home victory here.
Chicago -3.5 vs San Diego
One is on a 4 game winning streak, one is on a 4 game losing streak. One has D-FENCE the other doesn't. The mosters of the midway should crush the super chargers.
MONEYLINE PICKS
New York Giants 1.45 vs Philadelphia
Vick missed Wednesday and Thursday practice, maybe out? CONFIRMED OUT, and so is Maclin
Jacksonville 1.99 @ Cleveland
Green Bay, San Francisco, New England Treble @ 1.49
(pinny odds)
Couldn't find a third pick so this will have to do.
TOTALS PICKS
Cinccinnati @ Baltimore OVER 40.5
All 4 Ravens games have been over the line, with the Ravens scoring at least 29 in each of them. All 4 Bengals road games have been over the line, with the Bengals scoring at least 20 in all of them.
Buffalo @ Miami UNDER 43
The Bills offence has been found out a bit in the last 3 weeks and Miami's offence being what it is, unders looks a good call here.
Dallas @ Washinton UNDER 41.5
Romo at home and Romo on the road are 2 different players. Rex Grossman and John Beck are both shit.
HANDICAP PICKS
Oakland -1 @ Minnesota
The Carson Palmer version of the Raiders got going last Thursday with an impressive win at the Super Chargers while the Vikings were absolutely dredful on Monday, albeit at Green Bay. -1 is a steal on the Raiders who are 3-1 on the road.
| The Bush you can support |
I feel that the Rams are coming around and they can ride Steven Jackson to a home victory here.
Chicago -3.5 vs San Diego
One is on a 4 game winning streak, one is on a 4 game losing streak. One has D-FENCE the other doesn't. The mosters of the midway should crush the super chargers.
MONEYLINE PICKS
New York Giants 1.45 vs Philadelphia
Vick missed Wednesday and Thursday practice, maybe out? CONFIRMED OUT, and so is Maclin
Jacksonville 1.99 @ Cleveland
| No wonder he looks angry, he likes the Browns |
(pinny odds)
Couldn't find a third pick so this will have to do.
TOTALS PICKS
Cinccinnati @ Baltimore OVER 40.5
All 4 Ravens games have been over the line, with the Ravens scoring at least 29 in each of them. All 4 Bengals road games have been over the line, with the Bengals scoring at least 20 in all of them.
Buffalo @ Miami UNDER 43
The Bills offence has been found out a bit in the last 3 weeks and Miami's offence being what it is, unders looks a good call here.
| Another Bush you can support |
Romo at home and Romo on the road are 2 different players. Rex Grossman and John Beck are both shit.
Thursday, 10 November 2011
NFL Week 10
Week 10 singnals the start of football on Thrusday nights. Yes thats right, a league obsessed with safety and doing everything it can to prevent injuries and injury inducing takles, makes players play games just 4 days apart just so its TV station has programing that is not just talking heads. In protest of the crazyness all picks for Thursday games (thanksgiving aside) will be exclusive to twitter @kjbetting
As things stand 3 weekly 1pt tirxies show a 13.85pt profit and 12 weekly 1pt singles are showing a 17.835 pt profit.
Handicap Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Cincinnati
If at first you don't suceed, give up and try trading for a living, or something like that anyway. The Steelers let us down for 3/3 last week by switching their brains off in the last 2:30, i mean throwing the ball on 3rd down when the Ravens had 1 time out left was pure insanity and in the end it probably cost them the game. Tomlin's boys will be fired up here and defeat, as 'no' usually is will not be an option for Big Ben
Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs Washington
The Skins head to Miami in an attempt to keep going their sneaky slide into the No2 draft pick and now that the Dolphins have finally played a game for 4 quarters instead of their usual 3, I fancy them to be a .500 team the rest of the season starting with a covering win on Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 @ Indy
The Jags have lost 1 game by 2 scores +, the Colts 5. The Colts are so damn bad they didn't score a point on offence at home last week, the bye will have given MJD a chance to rest up in prepartion of having a monster day here, as an added bonus Blaine Gabbert might even have developed some QB skills.
Moneyline Picks
Buffalo Bills 2/1 @ Dallas
To put it plainly (i hope you've noticed by now that in depth wrtite ups are not really my thing) i think the margin the Bills offence better than the Cowboys O is greater than the margin the Cowboys D is better than the Bills D. I'm willing to forgive last weeks thrashing by the Jets and point to the fact that their other 2 losses were at the hands of 6-2 teams (Cinn, NYG). This is a must win game for the Boys and we all know how Tony handles pressure, and this time he has to do it without 'i can see for' Miles Austin.
Detriot Lions 13/10 @ Chicago
No doubt, Da Bears were impressive Monday night in beating the literally defenceless Eagles. The Lions however should be hella prepared for this one coming off a bye AND a rest week against the Broncos. Add the fact that i think Detriot is better on both sides of the ball, significantly so on offence, makes the 13/10 on Detriot, GOLD Jerry GOLD!!!
St Louis Rams 13/10 @ Cleveland
Brown(s) by name, Brown by nature. I wouldn't back them to beat their own at the moment, nevermind Steven Jackson.
Totals Picks
New Orleans @ Atlanta UNDER 50
This game hasn't gone over since 2005. I think the Falcons D is good enough to make this a close game.
New England @ New York UNDER 47.5
Brady is throwing picks and not putting up points, The J-E-T-S- JETS JETS JETS still have Mark Sanchez at QB
Minnesota @ Green Bay OVER 51
Can the Vikes been 1/2 competitive ?? I think they can given they're coming off their bye. If they are Green Bay will have to keep trying and will take the total over.
As things stand 3 weekly 1pt tirxies show a 13.85pt profit and 12 weekly 1pt singles are showing a 17.835 pt profit.
Handicap Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Cincinnati
If at first you don't suceed, give up and try trading for a living, or something like that anyway. The Steelers let us down for 3/3 last week by switching their brains off in the last 2:30, i mean throwing the ball on 3rd down when the Ravens had 1 time out left was pure insanity and in the end it probably cost them the game. Tomlin's boys will be fired up here and defeat, as 'no' usually is will not be an option for Big Ben
 |
| Chance of defeat |
The Skins head to Miami in an attempt to keep going their sneaky slide into the No2 draft pick and now that the Dolphins have finally played a game for 4 quarters instead of their usual 3, I fancy them to be a .500 team the rest of the season starting with a covering win on Sunday.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 @ Indy
The Jags have lost 1 game by 2 scores +, the Colts 5. The Colts are so damn bad they didn't score a point on offence at home last week, the bye will have given MJD a chance to rest up in prepartion of having a monster day here, as an added bonus Blaine Gabbert might even have developed some QB skills.
 |
| 'When i'm back the Colts will rise HIGH' |
Buffalo Bills 2/1 @ Dallas
To put it plainly (i hope you've noticed by now that in depth wrtite ups are not really my thing) i think the margin the Bills offence better than the Cowboys O is greater than the margin the Cowboys D is better than the Bills D. I'm willing to forgive last weeks thrashing by the Jets and point to the fact that their other 2 losses were at the hands of 6-2 teams (Cinn, NYG). This is a must win game for the Boys and we all know how Tony handles pressure, and this time he has to do it without 'i can see for' Miles Austin.
Detriot Lions 13/10 @ Chicago
No doubt, Da Bears were impressive Monday night in beating the literally defenceless Eagles. The Lions however should be hella prepared for this one coming off a bye AND a rest week against the Broncos. Add the fact that i think Detriot is better on both sides of the ball, significantly so on offence, makes the 13/10 on Detriot, GOLD Jerry GOLD!!!
St Louis Rams 13/10 @ Cleveland
Brown(s) by name, Brown by nature. I wouldn't back them to beat their own at the moment, nevermind Steven Jackson.
Totals Picks
New Orleans @ Atlanta UNDER 50
This game hasn't gone over since 2005. I think the Falcons D is good enough to make this a close game.
 |
| Is that Matt Ryan or Phil Mickelson??? |
Brady is throwing picks and not putting up points, The J-E-T-S- JETS JETS JETS still have Mark Sanchez at QB
Minnesota @ Green Bay OVER 51
Can the Vikes been 1/2 competitive ?? I think they can given they're coming off their bye. If they are Green Bay will have to keep trying and will take the total over.
| CHEEEEESSSSSSSEEEEEE |
Thursday, 3 November 2011
NFL WEEK 9
Advanced apologies for this weeks write up. Feeling bang out of blog writing creative juices, and overflowing with others. Lets get back to winning ways after last weeks disappointment.
TOTALS PICKS
Miami @ Kansas UNDER 40.5
In the Matt Moore 'era' have averaged less than 13 points per game while their D has given up 62 points in them against offences comparable to Kansas City who are struggling for a consistant offence without Charles.
Cincinnati @ Tennessee OVER 41.5
The Bengals have 20+ in all but 1 game, averaging over 30 in the last 3. The Titans have to throw the ball because they have no running game.
Seattle @ Dallas OVER 44
I'm hoping Seattle get the points in garbage time that the Rams couldn't, if required of course.
HANDICAP PICKS
Houston -10.5 vs Cleveland
The first proper, functioning offence the Browns have faced basically all season, and the Browns don't have one.
Green Bay -5.5 @ San Diego
No explanation required. If you want one have a look at this betfair forum post
Philadelphia -8 vs Chicago
Yes DA BEARS are coming off a bye week but their offence is still Matt Forte and Matt Forte alone. If the Eagles offence and imparticularly top dawg Mike Vick play even close the level they played last week against the Cowboys it will be a similar result.
MONEYLINE PICKS
Pittsburgh 1.53 vs Baltimore
The Steelers are argably the 2nd best team in the NFL. Baltimore look like they are when their on song, but they look Tebow awful when they're not. Add the semi irrelevant fact that the Ravens have never beaten the Steelers twice in a season and there's only 1 winner in this baw game.
New York Jets 2.05 @ Buffalo
The people of New York might actually start to take notice of their local team if Big Kev's Bills can beat the self proclaimed Superbowl XLVI winners. New York's top toe sucker will know how big the next 2 weeks are for the Jets, lose both games and they'll probabaly have to run the table to have a chance of making the playoffs. It's time for Shonn Greene and the Sanchize to step up.
San Francisco 1.54 @ Washington
I'll keep riding the foreskins until they come good, which they wont.
TOTALS PICKS
Miami @ Kansas UNDER 40.5
In the Matt Moore 'era' have averaged less than 13 points per game while their D has given up 62 points in them against offences comparable to Kansas City who are struggling for a consistant offence without Charles.
Cincinnati @ Tennessee OVER 41.5
The Bengals have 20+ in all but 1 game, averaging over 30 in the last 3. The Titans have to throw the ball because they have no running game.
Seattle @ Dallas OVER 44
I'm hoping Seattle get the points in garbage time that the Rams couldn't, if required of course.
HANDICAP PICKS
Houston -10.5 vs Cleveland
The first proper, functioning offence the Browns have faced basically all season, and the Browns don't have one.
Green Bay -5.5 @ San Diego
No explanation required. If you want one have a look at this betfair forum post
Philadelphia -8 vs Chicago
Yes DA BEARS are coming off a bye week but their offence is still Matt Forte and Matt Forte alone. If the Eagles offence and imparticularly top dawg Mike Vick play even close the level they played last week against the Cowboys it will be a similar result.
MONEYLINE PICKS
Pittsburgh 1.53 vs Baltimore
The Steelers are argably the 2nd best team in the NFL. Baltimore look like they are when their on song, but they look Tebow awful when they're not. Add the semi irrelevant fact that the Ravens have never beaten the Steelers twice in a season and there's only 1 winner in this baw game.
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| Boy you've been a naughty QB |
The people of New York might actually start to take notice of their local team if Big Kev's Bills can beat the self proclaimed Superbowl XLVI winners. New York's top toe sucker will know how big the next 2 weeks are for the Jets, lose both games and they'll probabaly have to run the table to have a chance of making the playoffs. It's time for Shonn Greene and the Sanchize to step up.
San Francisco 1.54 @ Washington
I'll keep riding the foreskins until they come good, which they wont.
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