Sadly there will not be an in depth preview here like there normally is ;) as I have been struck down by a severe debilitating illness and unable to provide my usual high quality opinions. I don't think you are missing too much as from a quick look just about anything could happen in the NFC championship game and it's not one for putting down the big bucks on, save that for big bucks. I think the Ravens are a bit of value in the AFC title game at 11/4. Yes they may have limped over the line against Houston last week but the Texans have a kwality defence and Flacco was not as bad as is being made out. The Pats may have seen off GOD and his Broncos last weekend but in the form of Ray Lewis they go against the plea bargaining DEVIL and i expect a much different outcome. That said I will refrain from betting given my current state of health and will take a watching brief knowing I will be in a good position if the Pats win and an even better one if the Ravens do. Good Luck in your bets this weekend.
P.S Thanks in advance for the hundreds of get well wishes that i will no doubt be receiving in the coming days, i hope to be in a better state of health to bring you all a top class superbowl preview in 2 weeks time.
Saturday, 21 January 2012
Wednesday, 18 January 2012
Divisional Round Wrap Up
A poor week which saw profits on Saturday's games and losses on Sunday's which gave a loss of 1.92 points, which when knocked off Wild card weekends profit gives a total loss thus far for the play offs of 1.04 pts. However the outright selections of 'New England 4/1 4 pts, Baltimore 8/1 3.5 pts, Houston 66/1 0.5 pts' are doing ok.
Saturday, 14 January 2012
NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round Weekend
Last week i was full of inspiration and by my low standards produced a decent preview of the weekends action. This week the inspiration has deserted me like it did Neil Young in the 1980's and popular music in general from around 1996. Here's this weeks schedule and I'll breeze through game by game
NFL Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 14
New Orleans @ San Francisco 49ers FOX 9:30PM - Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston,
Denver @ New England Patriots CBS 1:00AM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Sunday, January 15
Houston @ Baltimore Ravens CBS 6:00PM - Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf
NYG @ Green Bay Packers FOX 9:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
The many different previews i read before lifting their thoughts and picks onto here all say something like 'the Saints will score 24-27 points and i don't see the 49ers matching that', apart from the ones that don't that is. I don't know who wins this one, It will probably be the Saints but i feel a much better bet is to go for the 2nd half to be the highest scoring at Even Money with Paddy power for 5 points.
TEBOWMANIA rolls into New England on Saturday night to take on Brady and Co, that's company not Stompe. The Patriots will win this game, they will take away any chance of the deep ball that Pittsburgh threatened Tebow into throwing and wait for McGahee to fumble or Jeebus himself to throw an interception. I don't think this one will ever be in much doubt but whether or not the Patriots cover will depend on if Belichick wants to stick the boot into the 2nd coming and how long Denver go before making the critical error. I'm steering clear of the spread and going having 2.5 points on Aaron Hernandez to score a TD at 2.23 with pinnacle and 1.5 points on Tom Brady at 7/1 to do the same with Corals as Denver will look to take away Gronkowski the Pats like a QB sneak at the goal line
The first game on Sunday sees The Texans go to fortress MT&T Bank stadium to take on Baltimore. I've made my mind up that Baltimore are winning this and rather than make up 115 pages of guff to attempt to justify my decision I'll do it in a few lines. I wasn't impressed with Houston last week, particularly in the first half when the Bengals could have built themselves a decent lead if they hadn't been in full self destruct mode. The Ravens old guard on defence will be well rested (as long as they've been sat at home not killing anyone) and looking to terrorise and befuddle TJ Yates while not letting Arian Foster beat them by himself, Boldin is back after minor surgery to give Flacco his no1 receiver back which will take a little bit of defencive pressure off Ray Rice. The Ravens won 8 of their 12 wins (8/8 at home) by at least 8 points including a 29-14 win over the Texans, I'm expecting a similar outcome this time with the Ravens winning by a couple of scores. Baltimore -7.5 , 5 points @ 10/11 (Gen)
The final game of the weekend is the cool pick for an upset with the Giants going to Green Bay. Well us here at kjbetting (me) are not cool and we're not stupid either. Green Bay won in New York by the dreaded 38-35 scoreline, having to drive to kick a field goal in the last 2 minutes having gone to sleep to let the Giants back into it. The Giants are supposed to have 'momentum' having scraped their way to the division title and victory in a pretty uninspiring game vs Atlanta, but I'd much rather have a 15-1 record, a bye week home advantage and Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay -7.5, 6 points @ 10/11 (Gen)
NFL Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 14
New Orleans @ San Francisco 49ers FOX 9:30PM - Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston,
Denver @ New England Patriots CBS 1:00AM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Sunday, January 15
Houston @ Baltimore Ravens CBS 6:00PM - Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf
NYG @ Green Bay Packers FOX 9:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
The many different previews i read before lifting their thoughts and picks onto here all say something like 'the Saints will score 24-27 points and i don't see the 49ers matching that', apart from the ones that don't that is. I don't know who wins this one, It will probably be the Saints but i feel a much better bet is to go for the 2nd half to be the highest scoring at Even Money with Paddy power for 5 points.
TEBOWMANIA rolls into New England on Saturday night to take on Brady and Co, that's company not Stompe. The Patriots will win this game, they will take away any chance of the deep ball that Pittsburgh threatened Tebow into throwing and wait for McGahee to fumble or Jeebus himself to throw an interception. I don't think this one will ever be in much doubt but whether or not the Patriots cover will depend on if Belichick wants to stick the boot into the 2nd coming and how long Denver go before making the critical error. I'm steering clear of the spread and going having 2.5 points on Aaron Hernandez to score a TD at 2.23 with pinnacle and 1.5 points on Tom Brady at 7/1 to do the same with Corals as Denver will look to take away Gronkowski the Pats like a QB sneak at the goal line
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| It was either this or Bibi Jones, but this is a family blog. |
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| Ravens are aiming high, but not in the Ricky Williams sense |
The final game of the weekend is the cool pick for an upset with the Giants going to Green Bay. Well us here at kjbetting (me) are not cool and we're not stupid either. Green Bay won in New York by the dreaded 38-35 scoreline, having to drive to kick a field goal in the last 2 minutes having gone to sleep to let the Giants back into it. The Giants are supposed to have 'momentum' having scraped their way to the division title and victory in a pretty uninspiring game vs Atlanta, but I'd much rather have a 15-1 record, a bye week home advantage and Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay -7.5, 6 points @ 10/11 (Gen)
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| Big Ben being aggressively pursued by a Clay |
Tuesday, 10 January 2012
Sunday, 8 January 2012
Wild Card Weekend - Day 1 Reflections
A few quick points
1. The Bengals at the Texans was a good game until Cincy decide to implode starting in the last 2 minutes of the first half. With 1 time out and a rookie QB the smart play must be to run the clock out to half time and go in level. But with the way Lewis used his challenges the smart play was always likely to be the outsider. Houston's victory guaranteed at least 1 of my Superbowl picks making the AFC championship game.
2. Unders in the end didn't fare too well in the New Orleans v Detriot game despite trading at 1.4 into the 2nd half. New Orleans continue to be a shocking price to win it all now being a top price 4/1 and generally shorter.
3. I'm surprised Baltimore are still available at 8/1 for the Superbowl, unless of course they would have been shorter if it was Pittsburgh visiting next week? no i don't think so either.
1. The Bengals at the Texans was a good game until Cincy decide to implode starting in the last 2 minutes of the first half. With 1 time out and a rookie QB the smart play must be to run the clock out to half time and go in level. But with the way Lewis used his challenges the smart play was always likely to be the outsider. Houston's victory guaranteed at least 1 of my Superbowl picks making the AFC championship game.
2. Unders in the end didn't fare too well in the New Orleans v Detriot game despite trading at 1.4 into the 2nd half. New Orleans continue to be a shocking price to win it all now being a top price 4/1 and generally shorter.
3. I'm surprised Baltimore are still available at 8/1 for the Superbowl, unless of course they would have been shorter if it was Pittsburgh visiting next week? no i don't think so either.
Friday, 6 January 2012
Wild Card Weekend & Outright Market
It's play offs time and here's the schedule. All games are live on the evil Murdoch empires Sky Sports, the Superbowl is also live on the do goody lefties BBC. all times are GMT
Wild Card Games
Saturday, January 7
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans NBC 9:30PM - Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints NBC 1:00AM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Sunday, January 8
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants FOX 6:00PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos CBS 9:30PM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
NFL Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 14
New Orleans/Atlanta/NYG @ San Francisco 49ers FOX 9:30PM - Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh/Denver @ New England Patriots CBS 1:00AM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Sunday, January 15
Houston/Pittsburgh/Denver @ Baltimore Ravens CBS 6:00PM - Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf
Detroit/Atlanta/NYG @ Green Bay Packers FOX 9:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
NFL Conference Finals Sunday, January 22
AFC Championship Game CBS 8:00PM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
NFC Championship Game FOX 11:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
Sunday, January 29
Pro Bowl NBC 12:00AM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Sunday, February 5
Super Bowl XLVI NBC 11:30PM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya, Alex Flanagan
As you'll see Wild Card weekend kick off with The Bengals @ The Texans because the league is saving the important games till later. The Bengals prize for winning would be a trip to Foxboro to take on the Patriots, The Texans are playing for a Trip to Baltimore. Very easy to make strong cases for both teams in this one but alas the NFL is not a New Labour organised non competitive sports day so they can't both win. I'm taking the home team reliant on a rested master running back Arian Foster backed up by Ben Tate carrying the load, and TJ Yates not making mistakes and finding Andre Johnson when he has to. Dalton has been struggling a little bit recently for the Bengals and this game might just be a year too soon for him.
Houston -3 2 pts @ 1.8 (Gen)
Taking on The Saints in New Orleans is difficult take to say the least, almost as hard as taking on the Steelers In Pittsburgh or fighting Lamont Peterson in Washington. A win for the Saints means they're going to San Francisco and a win for the Lions means another trip to Green Bay. Detriot are here after failing to beat said Green Bay who were without Aaron Rodgers, giving up 45 points to Matt Flynn and earning him millions of dollars in doing so. This game has the highest line ever for a play off game with the total set at 58.5. I'm confidently taking the under here for 2 main reasons. 1. The Saints defence aided by the superdome crowd only gave up more than 17 points in 1 home game this year (w3 vs Houston) 2. Drew Brees has no superficial, tainted, basically meaningless passing record to go for this week so clock eating, keeping the defence off the field and fresh for the coming weeks should be a higher priority.
Under 58.5 points 5 pts @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
The first Sunday game is probably the most interesting game of the 4 as the Atlana Falcons go to East Rutherford to take on the New York Giants. However I'm getting a little bit bored now and refer to Matt Ryan's 84.7 QB rating on the road and i fear that he and the team might have a touch of the Romo's about them.
Giants -3 2 pts @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)
The final game of Wild Card weekend is what some have dubbed as 'The Virgin* vs The Rapist**" although in reality this is going to be a battle of defences as the line of 33.5 suggests. This game comes down to just how bad Tebow will be. To say he has been awful the last 2 weeks would be an insult to awful qb's like Blaine Gabbert, there are really no words suitable for a family blog to describe how bad he's been. I have a feeling that Fox might cut Tebows pass attempts back to around 16 from the average of 24 he's been 'throwing' the last month. If he does Denver should be able to keep pace with the Mendenhallless, low scoring Steeler offence
Denver +10 3 pts @ 1.746 (Pinnacle)
Superbowl Betting - Team by team
Current odds can be found here.
Green Bay 2/1 Clear market favourites but don't really offer any value and even if it's not the Saints they come against in a potential NFC title game it's probably only just above fair.
New Orleans 5/1 Terrible, terrible value. A basic roll up of very tight and probably totally wrong projected odds of their path to glory is, 1.18 * 1.6 (@ san fran) * 1.8 (@ GB?) * 1.8 (sb) = 6.17. If you fancy the Saints, take them game by game.
San Francisco 12/1 Not brilliant value either, i will trust you to figure this out for yourself based on the previous example. Can anyone really see Alex Smith winning the Superbowl?
New York Giants 25/1 1.67 to beat the Falcons. Are they really then only14/1 shots to win @ Green Bay & SF/NO and then The big one? If you think they are you might be crazy enough to live in NYC.
Atlanta Falcons 50/1 Same as the Giants, are they only 20/1 to clear that path ? In both cases i see them maybe fair if they avoid playing the Saints, terrible value if play both.
Detriot Lions 66/1 (85 betfair) laughable price, HA HA HA
New England Patriots 4/1 Doubts are being raised about their prospects given their slow starts, being 17-0 and 21-0 down to the Dolphins and Bills in the last 2 weeks and that they can't afford to do that in the play offs. My view is that their potential divisional round opponents wont be good enough to do that in Foxboro and Belichick will have prevented it from happening again anyway. For a change i actually see a bit of value in this price.
Baltimore Ravens 8/1 To get to the AFC title game they'll have to either, take TJ Yates to school or probably have to beat the Steelers for the 3rd time this season, never an easy task, but whichever they have to do i think they will do well provided Cam Cameron doesn't go into Dolphins mode. They'd then be well primed to repeat their play off win of a couple of years ago at the Patriots if they had to. Or even better they could be at home again. Some value here too.
Pittsburgh Steelers 14/1 Don't see value here as i think it's pretty sure they'll have to beat both the Ravens and the Patriots to get to the big one. Then i would have them as Dawgs against any of the first 2 in the NFC.
Houston Texans 66/1 is a stand out price with sky bet. I've seen worse prices, a lot of them listed above
Cincinnati Bengals 100/1 As i explained in my match preview (maybe i didn't) Dalton is struggling a little bit and i don't belive Benson is good enough to lead a team through the play offs
Denver Tebows 125/1 not unless you're a believer, or like being shafted up ....
Recommendations All to win the Superbowl
New England 4/1 4 pts
Baltimore 8/1 3.5 pts
Houston 66/1 0.5 pts
*proclaimed **accused
Wild Card Games
Saturday, January 7
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans NBC 9:30PM - Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints NBC 1:00AM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Sunday, January 8
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants FOX 6:00PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos CBS 9:30PM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
NFL Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 14
New Orleans/Atlanta/NYG @ San Francisco 49ers FOX 9:30PM - Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh/Denver @ New England Patriots CBS 1:00AM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Sunday, January 15
Houston/Pittsburgh/Denver @ Baltimore Ravens CBS 6:00PM - Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf
Detroit/Atlanta/NYG @ Green Bay Packers FOX 9:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
NFL Conference Finals Sunday, January 22
AFC Championship Game CBS 8:00PM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
NFC Championship Game FOX 11:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
Sunday, January 29
Pro Bowl NBC 12:00AM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Sunday, February 5
Super Bowl XLVI NBC 11:30PM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya, Alex Flanagan
As you'll see Wild Card weekend kick off with The Bengals @ The Texans because the league is saving the important games till later. The Bengals prize for winning would be a trip to Foxboro to take on the Patriots, The Texans are playing for a Trip to Baltimore. Very easy to make strong cases for both teams in this one but alas the NFL is not a New Labour organised non competitive sports day so they can't both win. I'm taking the home team reliant on a rested master running back Arian Foster backed up by Ben Tate carrying the load, and TJ Yates not making mistakes and finding Andre Johnson when he has to. Dalton has been struggling a little bit recently for the Bengals and this game might just be a year too soon for him.
Houston -3 2 pts @ 1.8 (Gen)
Taking on The Saints in New Orleans is difficult take to say the least, almost as hard as taking on the Steelers In Pittsburgh or fighting Lamont Peterson in Washington. A win for the Saints means they're going to San Francisco and a win for the Lions means another trip to Green Bay. Detriot are here after failing to beat said Green Bay who were without Aaron Rodgers, giving up 45 points to Matt Flynn and earning him millions of dollars in doing so. This game has the highest line ever for a play off game with the total set at 58.5. I'm confidently taking the under here for 2 main reasons. 1. The Saints defence aided by the superdome crowd only gave up more than 17 points in 1 home game this year (w3 vs Houston) 2. Drew Brees has no superficial, tainted, basically meaningless passing record to go for this week so clock eating, keeping the defence off the field and fresh for the coming weeks should be a higher priority.
Under 58.5 points 5 pts @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
| WHAT, WHAT WHAT WHAT, SHIT |
Giants -3 2 pts @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)
| Cruzing to Green Bay |
The final game of Wild Card weekend is what some have dubbed as 'The Virgin* vs The Rapist**" although in reality this is going to be a battle of defences as the line of 33.5 suggests. This game comes down to just how bad Tebow will be. To say he has been awful the last 2 weeks would be an insult to awful qb's like Blaine Gabbert, there are really no words suitable for a family blog to describe how bad he's been. I have a feeling that Fox might cut Tebows pass attempts back to around 16 from the average of 24 he's been 'throwing' the last month. If he does Denver should be able to keep pace with the Mendenhallless, low scoring Steeler offence
Denver +10 3 pts @ 1.746 (Pinnacle)
 |
| no thanks |
Superbowl Betting - Team by team
Current odds can be found here.
Green Bay 2/1 Clear market favourites but don't really offer any value and even if it's not the Saints they come against in a potential NFC title game it's probably only just above fair.
New Orleans 5/1 Terrible, terrible value. A basic roll up of very tight and probably totally wrong projected odds of their path to glory is, 1.18 * 1.6 (@ san fran) * 1.8 (@ GB?) * 1.8 (sb) = 6.17. If you fancy the Saints, take them game by game.
San Francisco 12/1 Not brilliant value either, i will trust you to figure this out for yourself based on the previous example. Can anyone really see Alex Smith winning the Superbowl?
New York Giants 25/1 1.67 to beat the Falcons. Are they really then only14/1 shots to win @ Green Bay & SF/NO and then The big one? If you think they are you might be crazy enough to live in NYC.
Atlanta Falcons 50/1 Same as the Giants, are they only 20/1 to clear that path ? In both cases i see them maybe fair if they avoid playing the Saints, terrible value if play both.
Detriot Lions 66/1 (85 betfair) laughable price, HA HA HA
New England Patriots 4/1 Doubts are being raised about their prospects given their slow starts, being 17-0 and 21-0 down to the Dolphins and Bills in the last 2 weeks and that they can't afford to do that in the play offs. My view is that their potential divisional round opponents wont be good enough to do that in Foxboro and Belichick will have prevented it from happening again anyway. For a change i actually see a bit of value in this price.
Baltimore Ravens 8/1 To get to the AFC title game they'll have to either, take TJ Yates to school or probably have to beat the Steelers for the 3rd time this season, never an easy task, but whichever they have to do i think they will do well provided Cam Cameron doesn't go into Dolphins mode. They'd then be well primed to repeat their play off win of a couple of years ago at the Patriots if they had to. Or even better they could be at home again. Some value here too.
Pittsburgh Steelers 14/1 Don't see value here as i think it's pretty sure they'll have to beat both the Ravens and the Patriots to get to the big one. Then i would have them as Dawgs against any of the first 2 in the NFC.
Houston Texans 66/1 is a stand out price with sky bet. I've seen worse prices, a lot of them listed above
Cincinnati Bengals 100/1 As i explained in my match preview (maybe i didn't) Dalton is struggling a little bit and i don't belive Benson is good enough to lead a team through the play offs
Denver Tebows 125/1 not unless you're a believer, or like being shafted up ....
Recommendations All to win the Superbowl
New England 4/1 4 pts
Baltimore 8/1 3.5 pts
Houston 66/1 0.5 pts
*proclaimed **accused
Thursday, 5 January 2012
Regular Season Wrap Up
A solid final week wrapped up a successful regular season in which a levels stakes profit of 29.85 pts profit was made (Moneylines 6.23pts, Handicaps 17.2pts, Totals 6.41pts) from 156 pts staked. There were 91 winning picks, 3 pushes and 62 losers. Trixies made a 42.02 pts profit from 208 pts staked. Even if i do say so myself, considering i picked at least 9 different games every week i think the results have been pretty good.
In typical PDC Darts fashion I will gloss over my god damn awful division picks that I made and instead focus on the Top Running Back and Wide Receiver tips i made
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards
Maurice Jones Drew 16/1 - The Jags have decided to hold a weekly raffle for who gets to play QB this season. I'm pretty confident this weeks winner Luke McCown will do nothing else except hand the ball off to MJD and expect the others to do the same
Most Regular Season Receiving Yards
Calvin Johnson 10/1 - Whether or not megatron will actually get the most receiving yards is all down to if his Matthew Stafford can stay fit. IF he does megatron will be the leading receiver, if he doesn't Johnson still has a good shot of making the top 4.
Comeback tomorrow for WILD CARD WEEKEND TIPS
In typical PDC Darts fashion I will gloss over my god damn awful division picks that I made and instead focus on the Top Running Back and Wide Receiver tips i made
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards
Most Regular Season Receiving Yards
Calvin Johnson 10/1 - Whether or not megatron will actually get the most receiving yards is all down to if his Matthew Stafford can stay fit. IF he does megatron will be the leading receiver, if he doesn't Johnson still has a good shot of making the top 4.
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