Wild Card Games
Saturday, January 7
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans NBC 9:30PM - Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints NBC 1:00AM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Sunday, January 8
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants FOX 6:00PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos CBS 9:30PM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
NFL Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 14
New Orleans/Atlanta/NYG @ San Francisco 49ers FOX 9:30PM - Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston, Cincinnati/Pittsburgh/Denver @ New England Patriots CBS 1:00AM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
Sunday, January 15
Houston/Pittsburgh/Denver @ Baltimore Ravens CBS 6:00PM - Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf
Detroit/Atlanta/NYG @ Green Bay Packers FOX 9:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
NFL Conference Finals Sunday, January 22
AFC Championship Game CBS 8:00PM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
NFC Championship Game FOX 11:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
Sunday, January 29
Pro Bowl NBC 12:00AM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya
Sunday, February 5
Super Bowl XLVI NBC 11:30PM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya, Alex Flanagan
As you'll see Wild Card weekend kick off with The Bengals @ The Texans because the league is saving the important games till later. The Bengals prize for winning would be a trip to Foxboro to take on the Patriots, The Texans are playing for a Trip to Baltimore. Very easy to make strong cases for both teams in this one but alas the NFL is not a New Labour organised non competitive sports day so they can't both win. I'm taking the home team reliant on a rested master running back Arian Foster backed up by Ben Tate carrying the load, and TJ Yates not making mistakes and finding Andre Johnson when he has to. Dalton has been struggling a little bit recently for the Bengals and this game might just be a year too soon for him.
Houston -3 2 pts @ 1.8 (Gen)
Taking on The Saints in New Orleans is difficult take to say the least, almost as hard as taking on the Steelers In Pittsburgh or fighting Lamont Peterson in Washington. A win for the Saints means they're going to San Francisco and a win for the Lions means another trip to Green Bay. Detriot are here after failing to beat said Green Bay who were without Aaron Rodgers, giving up 45 points to Matt Flynn and earning him millions of dollars in doing so. This game has the highest line ever for a play off game with the total set at 58.5. I'm confidently taking the under here for 2 main reasons. 1. The Saints defence aided by the superdome crowd only gave up more than 17 points in 1 home game this year (w3 vs Houston) 2. Drew Brees has no superficial, tainted, basically meaningless passing record to go for this week so clock eating, keeping the defence off the field and fresh for the coming weeks should be a higher priority.
Under 58.5 points 5 pts @ 2.00 (Pinnacle)
| WHAT, WHAT WHAT WHAT, SHIT |
Giants -3 2 pts @ 2.02 (Pinnacle)
| Cruzing to Green Bay |
The final game of Wild Card weekend is what some have dubbed as 'The Virgin* vs The Rapist**" although in reality this is going to be a battle of defences as the line of 33.5 suggests. This game comes down to just how bad Tebow will be. To say he has been awful the last 2 weeks would be an insult to awful qb's like Blaine Gabbert, there are really no words suitable for a family blog to describe how bad he's been. I have a feeling that Fox might cut Tebows pass attempts back to around 16 from the average of 24 he's been 'throwing' the last month. If he does Denver should be able to keep pace with the Mendenhallless, low scoring Steeler offence
Denver +10 3 pts @ 1.746 (Pinnacle)
 |
| no thanks |
Superbowl Betting - Team by team
Current odds can be found here.
Green Bay 2/1 Clear market favourites but don't really offer any value and even if it's not the Saints they come against in a potential NFC title game it's probably only just above fair.
New Orleans 5/1 Terrible, terrible value. A basic roll up of very tight and probably totally wrong projected odds of their path to glory is, 1.18 * 1.6 (@ san fran) * 1.8 (@ GB?) * 1.8 (sb) = 6.17. If you fancy the Saints, take them game by game.
San Francisco 12/1 Not brilliant value either, i will trust you to figure this out for yourself based on the previous example. Can anyone really see Alex Smith winning the Superbowl?
New York Giants 25/1 1.67 to beat the Falcons. Are they really then only14/1 shots to win @ Green Bay & SF/NO and then The big one? If you think they are you might be crazy enough to live in NYC.
Atlanta Falcons 50/1 Same as the Giants, are they only 20/1 to clear that path ? In both cases i see them maybe fair if they avoid playing the Saints, terrible value if play both.
Detriot Lions 66/1 (85 betfair) laughable price, HA HA HA
New England Patriots 4/1 Doubts are being raised about their prospects given their slow starts, being 17-0 and 21-0 down to the Dolphins and Bills in the last 2 weeks and that they can't afford to do that in the play offs. My view is that their potential divisional round opponents wont be good enough to do that in Foxboro and Belichick will have prevented it from happening again anyway. For a change i actually see a bit of value in this price.
Baltimore Ravens 8/1 To get to the AFC title game they'll have to either, take TJ Yates to school or probably have to beat the Steelers for the 3rd time this season, never an easy task, but whichever they have to do i think they will do well provided Cam Cameron doesn't go into Dolphins mode. They'd then be well primed to repeat their play off win of a couple of years ago at the Patriots if they had to. Or even better they could be at home again. Some value here too.
Pittsburgh Steelers 14/1 Don't see value here as i think it's pretty sure they'll have to beat both the Ravens and the Patriots to get to the big one. Then i would have them as Dawgs against any of the first 2 in the NFC.
Houston Texans 66/1 is a stand out price with sky bet. I've seen worse prices, a lot of them listed above
Cincinnati Bengals 100/1 As i explained in my match preview (maybe i didn't) Dalton is struggling a little bit and i don't belive Benson is good enough to lead a team through the play offs
Denver Tebows 125/1 not unless you're a believer, or like being shafted up ....
Recommendations All to win the Superbowl
New England 4/1 4 pts
Baltimore 8/1 3.5 pts
Houston 66/1 0.5 pts
*proclaimed **accused
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