The premier league rolls on into another weekend of drama, excitement, unpredictablity and bullshit opening lines for previews. Here are my bets, again all 1pt singles. Also again, google images from not quite what i expected.
Everton v Liverpool DRAW 23/10
King Kenny has drawn his last 2 Merseyside derbies as Liverpool manager, or course it's totally irrelevant that one of them was over 20 years ago. Liverpool's best side would rout this Everton side but the King's idea of Liverpool's best side is different to everyone elses. To me this game has the look of the 1991 classic, Liverpool totally dominant and Everton score every chance they get.
Still faster than Charlie Adam
Red Card 12/5
6 of the last 10 games between the 2 have had red cards , and non of those games had the chronically slow Charlie Adam or the chronically short fused Luis Suarez playing in them.
'Luis Suarez angry'
Man City to beat Blackburn 4/7
City wont have anyone refusing to go on as a substitute this time. They'll be dying to run rings around the worst team with the worst manager in the league.
2 of these 5 being draws would make a profit. All these games have the home team favourite at odds against.
Sunderland v West Brom DRAW 12/5 Wolves v Newcastle DRAW 12/5 Fulham v QPR DRAW 5/2 Swansea v Stoke DRAW 23/10 Spurs v Arsenal DRAW 5/2
'Wenger angry'
Record so far
26 bets
13 winners
13 losers
+1.59 pts
Following the advice given would have generated a profit of 18.02 points if you'd have place 3 Trixie's each week and 8.62 points profit if you'd backed all 18 selections to level stakes. Now I've pointed that out onto the inevitably (but hopefully not) disappointing week 3 picks.
TOTALS PICKS
Mia @ Cle Under 41 Battle of average QB's. Hopefully they slug it out in a low scoring run fest.
Det @ Minn Under 45 Not sure the Vikes can score enough against this legit Detroit D
NYG @ Phil Under 48.5 Vick should play but is not 100%. Manning will play and is terrible
MONEYLINE PICKS
Atlanta Falcons 11/10 @ Tampa Bay
Straight to the point, I don't see why Tampa are favourites for this one. They lost their home opener in week 1 and struggled passed the McNabb lead Vikings last weekend. Atlanta likewise lost their first game being on the receiving end of a damn good thrashing from da bears but bounced back with a HUGE win over of the Eagles on SNF in which QB Matt Ryan threw 4 td while Mike Vick ended the game on the sidelines concussed and spitting up blood like a little kitty cat. The Bucs have struggled thus far with their passing game, imparticularly getting Mike Williams (who is looking like a major fantasy bust) involved, and if the Falcons can prevent big plays from rb Blount they should win this one quite comfortably.
Dawg that Vick couldn't put down
St Louis Rams 9/5 vs Baltimore
The Ravens were 6 point favourites going into last weeks game at the Titans, They lost that one 26-13 despite the Titans only managing 74 yards rushing over 29 carries. This took a bit of the hype away from their week 1 trouncing of the Steelers which may have been down to Big Ben's shocking game more than the Ravens. Sam Bradford impressed me Monday against the Giants converting some big 4th downs but eventually the absence of star running back Steven Jackson became too much to overcome. Hopefully he'll be back this week and make the 9/5 on offer look HUGE
Difference Maker
Oakland Raiders 17/10 vs New York Jets
Not sure why the Jets are bothering to play since Rex Ryan has already crowned their asses . Oakland looked good last week at Buffalo before eventually tiring after their short week and long west coast to east coast trip. Hopefully they'll have freshened up and will avoid the mistakes made by both Dallas (which cost them the game) and Jacksonville (which made it a blow out) and McFadden and Co can put 20+ points on the board again.
HANDICAP PICKS
Carolina Panthers -3.5 vs Jacksonville - According to Jags coach Alberto Del Rio 2 weeks ago Luke McCown gave the Jags “the best chance to win.”. They did win week 1 vs the Titans but got thrashed by the Jets last week, and so Luke McCown is no more and Blaine Gabbert is in at QB. New superstar QB Cam Newton will have to deal the pressure of being favoured to win for the first time in the NFL this week, don't see any reason why he wont. Steve Smith also appears to be BACK, if he ever went away.
Back
San Diego Chargers -14.5 vs Kansas City Chiefs - 41-3 and 48-7are the Chiefs first 2 results. The Chargers will have to make as many silly errors as they did at New England for this one to be at all close.
Tennessee Titans -7 vs Denver - Denver have been run over for 262 yards (28th in NFL) the first 2 weeks. Prime time for CJ2K to get back in the groove
Last week did not go all that well, 4 bets, 4 losses. I can promise thatthis week will not have the same outcome, mainly due to the fact that I'm only having 2 bets.
Newcastle to beat Blackburn 10/11
The cockney mafia controlled toon armyseem to have become a solid but unspectacular mid table team. Blackburn used to be just that before the Indians took over and tried to curry favour with fans to good football by sacking Big Samosa Allardyce. Their subsequent decision to give Steve Keen the job was as dopiaza it was to get rid of Sam who this year will lead West Ham to the Championship title.
Last weekends win over Arsenal was more down to Arsenal's defensive failings and lineman incompetence rather than good play from Blackburn. Yakubu although he did take his first goal well could be as slow as former toon 'star' Andy Carroll and shouldn't cause many problems for the Newcastle back line.
Halftime Snack
Man Utd -1 @ Stoke EVS
Stoke's 1-0 victory over Liverpool lead to some journos' proclaiming them top 4 candidates. i say they are fat, bearded, deluded idiots and so does their 4-0 hammering at Sunderland last Sunday.
A closer look at Stoke's start reveals they were lucky to draw with Chelsea on the opening weekend, stole a last point from a trip to Norwich, kicked the ball out of Ben Foster's hands to win at Woys West Bwom, had 1 shot and were played off the park by Liverpool, then reality set in at Sunderland.Tony Pulis splashed the cash at the end of the transfer window but if he thinks Peter Crouch is a better player than any of Jones, Fuller or Walters then he's as mad as his Labour Party funding boss.
It wouldn't surprise me if Man Utd had this wrapped up by half time and rested up in the 2nd as they're sure to have their champion league clash with the mighty Basle on Tuesday night in mind.
Sock it to the bookies
Record so far 24 bets 12 winners 12 losers +1.68 pts (to level stakes)
Colts 11/10 vs Cleveland The reason for the Browns being favourite came to fruition, Hillis ran all over them Bills 4/7 vs Oakland Never in doubt Cowboys 4/6 @ San Francisco As above
Trixie -1.4Singles +0.24
HANDICAP PICKS Saints - 6.5 vs Bears 30-13 Giants -6 vs Rams 28-16 Lions -7.5 vs Chiefs48-3
Trixie +13.89Singles +5.72
TOTALS PICKS Seahawks @ Steelers, Under 40 Steelers won 24-0 Jags @ Jets, Under 39.5 Jets won 32-3 Eagles @ Falcons, Under 49.5 Falcs won 35-31
Just a quick write up of my selections for this week as i have been a very busy boy. Unfortunately there aren't 3 odds against shots that i like enough to pick this week as week 2 can be a lottery with everyone overreating to what happened in week 1.
MONEYLINE PICKS
PICK 1 Indianapolis Colts 11/10 vs Cleveland
Really ? Really?? Really???. The Colts are odds against at home to the Browns. Kerry Collins isn't that bad, Rufus Manning will be doing the funky chicken on the sidelines guiding the Colts to victory
PICK 2 Buffalo Bills 4/7 vs Oakland
Oakland has an as unideal preparation for this game as you get. Short week having finished around midnight Denver time and then having to travel east to the Bills of Buffalo who having been tipped up here last week scored over 40 points for the first time since Van Buren was president. I'm riding this Buffalo as far as it will take me.
Dallas Cowboys 4/6 @ San Francisco
Romo blew it last week, there aint no doubt it's plain to see. If Romo and the Cowboys can't beat this 49ers team that struggled past the Seahawks last week and still have the incredibly average Alex Smith at QB, then it could be time to get set for another long season. But it wont happen so it's all OK.
OK
HANDICAP PICKS
Saints - 6.5 vs Bears Saints off a long week and it's home opener meaning an extra noisy superdome. No Colston but still enough options for Brees to spread it around. Cutler may have an even sulkier face on than normal after this one.
Giants -6 vs Rams The Rams all got injured last week against the Eagles so much that Vick and co. may have sent the Rams season to the dogs before it's even begun. The G men will be looking to make a statement after their bad loss to the Skins last week
Lions -7.5 vs Chiefs Have i really just picked the Lions giving up 7.5 points, yes, yes i have.
TOTALS PICKS
Seahawks @ Steelers, Under 40 The Steelers will have to score 30 for this to lose, i dont see it. Jags @ Jets, Under 39.5 Jets will pound and pound and the Jags have no one to throw the ball Eagles @ Falcons, Under 49.5 7/8 Falcs home games under this last season, inc prime time games vs Green Bay and New Orleans
Record so far 20 bets 12 winners 8 losers + 5.68 pts (to level stakes)
West Brom to win at Swansea 9/5 AND under 2.5 goals 8/11
Woy Hodgson has so far masterminded West Brom to 1 win and 3 defeats in their first 4 games, but the first 2 were against Man Utd and Chelsea, and they were cheated against Stoke. A win at Norwich last week will hopefully spring them onto a narrowr win at Swansea who have yet to score a premier league goal.
Ok, the bags fine fow now
Liverpool to win at Spurs 15/8
I'm taking a chance here on the 11 men of Liverpool against the 12 men of Tottenham. Spurs (management at least) have had the distraction of a trip to Greece but i'm told the rumours that Harry Redkanpp tried to buy the country for £10million and a couple of jiffys on the side are totally untrue. I am told however that he was seen down Peckham market this morning selling 100% kosher bottles of Southern Comfort for 10 nicker a time.
King Kenny when not crying of a conspiracy has had a full week to try and make footballers out of Henderson, Adam and Carroll, lets hope he's succeeded.
A conspiracy i tells ya, 'what'
Stoke to win at Sunderland 23/10
Old fat head Steve Bruce's final game as Sunderland boss ?????
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 15/13 - Big Ben seemed overly determined to force it into receivers that were not open, sound familiar? TENNESSEE TITANS 5/4 - The Titans couldn't get their running game going, perhaps CJ2K is holding out for a bigger contract?
BUFFALO BILLS 11/5 - Just the 41-7 to the Bills
Trixie -4 ptsLevel Stakes Singles + 0.2 pts
HANDICAP PICKS
Seattle Seahawks +5.5, was a 2 point game with less than 4 mins to go, 17-33
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5, comfy winner as every rams player got hurt, 31-13
New York Jets -4, 27-24 lucky to be close at all, Romo blew it, again
Trixie -4 ptsLevel Stakes Singles -1.09 pts
TOTALS PICKS
NE@MIA OVER 45.5 - 62 points
PHI@STL OVER 43.5 - 44 points
DET@TB OVER 41 - 47 points
4 quick picks for the most receiving and rushing yards. Level stakes ew (1/4 1-4)
Most Regular Season Receiving Yards
Mike Wallace 12/1 - Big Ben apparently has plenty of pent up frustration after not raping anyone during the off season and i reckon that Wallace will be the main beneficiary of this turn up for the books. Wallace had 7 regular season games with over 100 yds receiving but also 4 under 50, if he improves on a couple of them and Ben keeps up hi is newly found restraint he has a great shout of being leading receiver.
Calvin Johnson 10/1 - Whether or not megatron will actually get the most receiving yards is all down to if his Matthew Stafford can stay fit. IF he does megatron will be the leading receiver, if he doesn't Johnson still has a good shot of making the top 4.
Dwayne Bowe 33/1 - Value shot for the player who finished 7th in yds last year. Very hit and miss but the Chiefs dont really have anyone else to arrow the ball to.
Brandon Marshall 33/1 - Had 1000 yds last year and the Dolphins might have to air the ball out a bit more to this year with in my opinion, no running game. Marshall finished last season with over 300 yds in the last 3 games.
Sporano, soon to be sleeping with the fishes
Most Regular Season Rushing Yards
Maurice Jones Drew 16/1 - The Jags have decided to hold a weekly raffle for who gets to play QB this season. I'm pretty confident this weeks winner Luke McCown will do nothing else except hand the ball off to MJD and expect the others to do the same
David Garrard, got out just in time
Darren McFadden 25/1 - Can he stay healthy, if the answers yes he's a great bet for a place at the very least. 1157 yds last year despite missing 3 games and having 2 more with combined stats of 18 carries for 16 yards. The odds reflect the risk but at 25/1 it's a risk worth taking.
Michael Turner 12/1 - He's a work horse, i think he's slowing down but he's still a work horse and work horses get truck loads of carries.
Turner
Ahmad Bradshaw 66/1 - If his ankle and all of his other injuries can go away for a year and Brandon Jacobs can upset a few more people, it might lead to another 30-40 carries for Bradshaw which could just bump him up the 100 yds he was short of getting a place last year.
Lets go through 1 by 1. Arsenal, they're playing Swansea for christs sake, people will think Arsenal's problems are long behind them after bashing the taffs leeky defence. Chelsea are a slight risk but Sunderland somehow still managed by the fat headed Geordie are not good, even with Bendtner on board. Man Utd will win because Coyle will be too busy brown nosing old bacon face to bother with any tactics, a comfy 3-1 for Utd would be my guess. Fulham need a win after just 1 goal in their first 3 games, Blackburn's last hope against certain relegation is .... errrr Scott Dann.
Message for Nicklas
Stoke v Liverpool Under 2.5 goals 8/11
Only 1 of the 6 premier league meeting between these 2 teams has had more than 2 goals (Aug 09, when Liverpool won 4-0) with the 3 results at the Britannia being 0-0 1-1 and 2-0 to Stoke last season in what was one of the worst Liverpool performance in recent memory. In addition to these good but pretty meaningless stats only 1 of the 6 premier league games involving either of these 2 teams has had more than 2 goals in it (Liverpool 3 Bolton 1). This and the strong possibility that both Peter Crouch and Andy Carroll both start this game makes 8/11 a decent price.
£35 million, worth a black armband ?
Bolton v Man Utd Over 3.5 goals 7/4
There's been 4, 5 and 4 goals in Bolton's 3 league games so far with Bolton scoring 7 of them. In Man Utd's games there's been 3, 3 and 10 with Utd scoring 13. 7/4 on 4 or more is worth a value poke.
Everton v Aston Villa Under 2.5 goals @ 8/11
The final pick of a quiet weekend of premier league betting, but there's plenty of NFL action, my tips for week 1 are HERE and my division picks are HERE and HERE Aston Villa have had 2 0-0 draws already and Everton have really drawn 2 blanks discounting the very dubious injury time penalty at Blackburn. Everton now officially have no strikers and before too long Aston Villa with their current style of play will have no fans.
Here's how it's going to go, I'm going to pick 3 each week for a money line Trixie (3 doubles & the treble). These will tend to be what i think are the 3 best odds against shots of the week as i don't like Trixie's when 2 winners returns a loss. I'll will also pick 3 handicap and totals bets each week. Be warned if you're looking for in depth analysis on the NFL this might not be the blog for you, if you wants some picks with the occasional funny (or ffs) then it might be.
Both the Steelers and the Ravens will have set their sights high (but not in the Ricky Williams sense)* but the Ravens might be getting stoned in the local press on Monday after going down and getting a pounding from Big Ben and the Steelers. Yes i know i have picked the Ravens to win the division but Big Ben hasn't lost to the Ravens for 3 years and the Steelers have won their last 8 season openers. These 2 teams are very similar but i think Pittsburgh might just be a bit more similar, they'll be 15 games for Baltimore to get ahead.
The seats will be out in force to support the Jags in the season opener. It's a make or hit the road season for Del Rio and he's already lost the plot by cutting David Garrard on Tuesday. CJ2K and the serviceable (not like that) Matt Hasselbeck should be strong enough to overcome MJD on his own
Serviceable
PICK 3 - BUFFALO BILLS @ Kansas City 11/5
Matt Cassel stated that 'everything is a go' when asked about his rib injuty a couple of days ago, but by 4pm Sunday eveything might be a no if the Bills spring a surprise. This one is based on a few things,
1.The Chiefs were 0-4 in pre season & Fitzpatrick had a perfect rating in week 3 vs the Jags, like they matter. 2. The Buffalo D has a new look to it to try and stop the run, and lets face it, it must be better.
3.The chiefs do have the best running back in the NFL in Jamal Charles but one threat they wont have to face is first round pick Jon Baldwin, who is a slugger like his late uncle Mike and broke his thumb in a fight with team mate Ken Thomas Jones.
This rock solid reasoning along with the pressure of an expectant arrowhead crowd are enough for me to have a dabble on the bills to win this baw game.
People who annoy you ?
HANDICAP PICKS
Seattle Seahawks +5.5, Carroll's boys to leave the 9ers standing Stills
Philadelphia Eagles -4.5, Dome stadium ideal for Vick to dish out a pounding
New York Jets -4, Rex Ryan brings new meaning to the in phrase 'suck for luck'
NFC EAST - A dog eat dog division if ever there was one (head in hands man). I've tried very hard to make a strong case against the eagles but apart from 'Andy Reid is a fat bottler whose clock management makes a Labour Chancellors budget management look AAA' it can't do it. The Eagles have the best team and the best schedule of the 3 challengers with the skins a distant 4th hoping to lead the race to 'suck for Luck'
PICK - PHILADELPHIA
Yellow matter custard
NFC NORTH -The CHAMPS, Green Bay are a best price 8/15 to win this division, plenty short when they didn't even win it last year. I'm taking a chance on the Vikings as they have a relatively 'easy' start and hope AD AP can fly out the traps and give the team some momentum which could lead to a shock. McNabb hopefully feels like giving the Skins the finger and proves a point at a general 10/1.
PICK - MINNESOTA
A 2009 Favrelike season possibly ????
NFC WEST - I don't know, simple as that. I could have gone for the rams and gone all out on Sam Bradford red indian puns, 49ers and gay puns, or the Cardinals because they have the best receiver in football. But i just can't convince myself on any of them, so I'll speculate on last years division champs @ 8/1whose coach is a very very very fine coach
PICK - SEATTLE
Pete Carroll can change the world
NFC SOUTH - Last year the Bucs benefited from a soft schedule, this year they wont and will be back to .500 at best. Atlanta gave up their draft to get Julio Jones to take some pressure of Roddy White and this year could be shit or bust for them. Last year they won a few games by a gnats tadger and their record probably flattered them a touch. The saints had a few shit houses like losses to Cleveland and Arizona and still came out with 11-5, take them with their new look RB trio of Thomas, Sproles and Ingham to control the clock, and the division.
PICK - NEW ORLEANS
Reggie Bush has departed New Orleans for a quiet life in Miami
PLAY OFF PREDICTIONS
Atlanta (5) @ Seattle (4)
Green Bay (6) @ Minnesota (3)
I did intend to do an extensive preview but unfortunately time and motivation constraints have prevented this from happening, so here is a quick rundown of what i see happening this season.
AFC EAST -NO REX RYAN JOKES PLEASE!! . 2 team race between the Patriots and the Jets. It could be a close division or the Pats could walk it. The Jets finish with a trips to then Eagles and the Dolphins with a New York derby inbetween whereas the Pats go to denver (tebow??) and have home games against the Dolphins and the Bills. IF the jets can keep it close going into the last 3 New England probably wont be any bigger than the current price of 8/13.
PICK - NEW ENGLAND
AFC NORTH - Another division that should WILL be a 2 team race and like the Pats and Jets both the Ravens and the Steelers should make the play offs. I'll take the QB who can ride his motorcycle and keep his grey dick in his pants at odds against
AFC WEST - The Chargers SHOULD walk this division by at least 3 games even if they don't pull their fingers out the arses. 8/15 is probably just about a backable price
PICK - SAN DIEGO
AFC SOUTH - If the Texans dont win the division this year they probably never will. They might very well do it but would i back they at 5/4? would i flip. You can get 7/4 on the Colts due to the neck injury Peyton Manning suffered in a banjo duel gone wrong. Instead i'll have a speculative bet on the CJ2K's titans in the hope that the Texan wheels fall over in their tough start and that Manning is done. As far as the jags, well they're in generall dissarray
PICK - TENNESSEE (this years worst to first)
PLAY OFF PREDICTION
Pittsburgh (5) @ Tennessee (4)
New York Jets (6) @ Baltimore (3)
