NFL Week 8

Sunday edits are in red . Follow @kjbetting  for bonus pre game and in running tips

Last week was a nearly week for the column.  The Chargers blew a 2 score lead in New Jersey and the Rams blew a first & goal from the 1 at the end of the game to keep the score under the points spread.   Having said that if you backed level stakes singles on all 9 picks you'd have made a 1.445pt profit.  For reference below is the level stakes profits/losses of trixies & singles so far this season.

***correction: spread trixies are actually +11.44 making the trixie total +27.34 pts ***8


TOTALS PICKS

New England @ Pittsburgh OVER 50.5
I smell a shootout, or a Pats rout, either way it goes over.
San Diego @ Kansas City OVER 44
The super Chargers have scored 20+ in every game this season but despite that fact Rivers has been getting some flack this past week, don't know why myself, maybe disgruntled fantasy owners.  The Chiefs have scored 20+ in their last 3 games through  a combination of offence and defence. I can easily see Bowe and V Jax having HUGE games here.

 

No caption neccesary

New Orleans @ St Louis OVER 47.5 
The Rams have robbed me in garbage time 2 weeks in a row, don't do it again.  Boller is starting again for the Rams does shake my confidence in this pick a bit as the Saints probably wont need to score more than 20 to win the game.  It will most likely be the same as last week, they will score as many as they like. If i was making the picks now i'd probably take another game to go unders, a game which will be revealed on twitter @kjbetting .


HANDICAP PICKS


NY Giants -10 vs Miami 
If you've seen Miami's offence recently you should understand this pick.

Tony pointing himself to the exit

 Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs Washington
The Skins are dropping like flies. The Bills of Toronto should be ok in the Rodgers center with Fred Jackson running wild on Washington, who could be crazy dark horses for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
San Francisco 49ers -8 vs Cleveland
San Francisco are coming off a bye week just like the first 2 picks going up agaist the 22nd ranked pass offence and the 29th  rushing offence. The browns may be no1 against the pass but GORE GORE GORE should be able to cover the spread.


MONEYLINE PICKS


Seattle Seahawks 13/10 vs Cincinnati
The Seahawks odds against any non 'elite' team is normally value. The Hawks will turn up the volume on the Bengals rookie QB, literally.

Dallas Cowboys 8/5 @ Philadelphia
The Cowboys have been a popular pick this week amongst the 'experts', popular for an 8/5 shot anyway, so they should be curtanties as mort would say, yes ?
Minnesota  8/5 @ Carolina
The best running back in the league taking on a team thats 2-5. IF the vikes can cover Steve Smith effectively they've a great shot at winning this game because Cam Newton will make mistakes. I think he's overhyped based on his fantasy stats rather than real life play.


all lines as at 23:22 on Wednesday

NFL WEEK 7

The big question this week is, can the Dolphins win ?? The big announcement is that KJBETTING has its own twitter account which is unsurprisingly @kjbetting . Look out for bonus tips and a link to the occasional Harry Nilsson song.

Denver 11/10 @ Miami
Tebowmania will run wild on the Dolphins defence, which got absolutely no pass rush on the Sanchize Monday night.  If they are even half as bad Tebow should find enough holes to make a few big plays. Denver coming off a bye should have little trouble containing Matt Moore whose only pass on Monday was one to Brandon Marshall.

Tebow 3:16 says I just whooped your ass

San Diego 4/5 @ New York Jets
The Jets win on Monday night was more to do with the Dolphins deficiencies than actual good play from the Jets. Facts are that the Dolphins strolled down to the Jets red zone 3 times in the first 20 minutes only to make a pigs ear of all 3 opportunities. I'm firmly of the belief that the Jets are not a good team and wont make the play offs this year and this game should rubber stamp that belief.


Atlanta 13/8 @ Detroit
The lions lost their first game last week, they'll lose their 2nd game this week if Best doesn't break off a couple of huge plays. 13/8 is very generous for the better team.

HANDICAP  PICKS

Green Bay -9 @ Minnesota
Looking good against da Bears defence that had stopped trying and the Green Bay Packers are 2 totally different propositions. Aaron Rodgers will give the Vikes something to Ponder.


New Orleans -14 vs Indianapolis
Sean Payton could have 2 shattered legs and 14 still wouldn't be enough, and to continue the wrestling theme this is how you no sell f*cking your legs up.

Baltimore -7.5 @ Jacksonville 
The Ravens have only once failed to score less than 29 and only once thus far conceded more than 20. The jags have only scored 20 once, and then the conceded 30.

TOTALS BETS

Pittsburgh @ Arizona  OVER 41.5
St Louis @ Dallas OVER 43.5
Chicago @ Tampa @ Wembley UNDER 44

New Wembley appearences. Tampa Bay 2 Liverpool 0

SEASON UPDATE

The weekly bets so far are showing a 37.1% ROI (+26.68 pts) if you picked 3 weekly trixies and a 31.1% ROI (+16.75 pts)  if every tip was backed for level stakes singles. I think that's pretty good  given that i pick 9 different games each week rather than concentrate on just a few.

I doubt anyone read them but here are my tips for the top rusher and receiver  that i posted before the season began (advised ew singles), and how they currently stand.

Top Rusher
MJD 16/1            572 yds (3rd)
McFadden 25/1   610 (1st)
Turner 12/1          499 (8th)
Bradshaw 66/1    390 (13th)

Top Receiver
Wallace 12/1        612 yds (4th)
C Johnson 10/1    564 (5th)
Bowe 33/1           420* (14th)
Marshall 33/1       424* (13th)

Welker leads with 785
* Had their bye week

My AFC division picks were posted HERE  and NFC picks HERE . I think it's fair to say i must've been under the influence when i made the NFC picks but the AFC picks look good.

Weekend Soccerball

If you read this or not, think the tips are crap or not, i dont really care. But make sure that you take advantage of the offers from Bet365 and Paddy Power this weekend, and easy £50 in your pockets if you play it right.


Premier league write ups have become a bit of a chore already, mainly due to how dull and predictable the top end of the league has become over the years and this year more than ever. City have become the team Liverpool would have become if Benitez had been given half decent backing in the summer of 2008, boring to watch but bloody effective. Man Utd are their usual rubbish selves but predictably still win every home game despite being outplayed and Chelsea seem to be back in the groove and Torres is beginning to look like a footballer again. I think they're being a touch underrated and 3/1 could be a decent bit of interest for the season.

Onto this week which sees 5 games on Saturday and 5 on Sunday (another reason why the league is losing its appeal to me) due to TV and Europa league on Thursday, why the fixtures are not doctored to minimise the number of Sunday games not televised i don't know, eg There are 3 Premier League teams in the Europa League, match them up to ensure no more than 2 games not on TV being played Sundays. Could even force sky to pick some of these games for TV , eg Spurs @ Stoke or Fulham seems a lot more interesting to me than QPR being torn a new one by Chelsea  ED.  drifted off track a bit here.

It's hard to spot real value in the 1X2 markets on Premier League games so i'm going for 4 trebles and a 4 timer on 4 jollies. totalling a  5 points stake.

Newcastle 8/13
Arsenal 4/7
Man Utd 11/10
Chelsea 2/5

Unbeaten Newcastle face Wigan who look DOOMED. Arsenal take on Stoke who have been smashed after their first 2 Europa games by Sunderland and Swansea so if Arsenal can't get a win there's something wrong.  Man Utd just win at home as stated above and Chelsea go to QPR who have only scored 2 goals in their first 4 home games. They'll have to double that to have a chance of anything this week.

NFL WEEK 6

Last week didn't go to plan but you can't change the past so it's onwards and hopefully upwards with this weeks picks.  I have shook them up a bit though, giving the totals picks top billing.

Season Totals, Trixies +12.03 pts , Singles +13.82 pts
(based on 3 1pt trixies every week (total 12 points) and 9 1pt singles)

TOTALS PICKS
Indianapolis @ Cincinnati OVER 40.5
The Curtis Painter 'era' has brought 41 points in 2 games for the Colts, both being defeats. 4 of the Bengals 5 games have gone over this line and the opposition has scored 20 on them in each of the last 2 weeks.

Dallas @ New England UNDER 55
Tony Romo after imploding last time out against the Lions wont be doing anything silly in this one, although knowing him he might do. The Patriots while were told have a poor defence hae only once given up more than 24 points and that was the freak game in Buffalo where Brady threw 4 picks. The line at 55 is a bit too high for me.

Wonder if the birds choke as much as Tony

Minnesota @ Chicago OVER 41.5
Both sides are averaging over 20 points  per game thus far, and so are their opponents.

HANDICAP PICKS
Pittsburgh -12 vs Jacksonville 
As reported at the start of the season Big Ben has gone a while without raping anyone, but that all ended when he raped the Titans for 5 touchdowns in a 38-17 win. Their other home game was also won by over 20, that being a 24-0 win over the Seahawks. The Jags are going to Heinz field on the back of 2 double didgit home defeats. Blaine Gabberts first road start was in a monsoon in Carolina with their only TD being a hail mary on the stroke of half time. This could be a monsoon of points for Steelers with Ben going to town like a father with his altar boys.

Baltimore -7.5 vs Houston
The Ravens have won their 2 homes games by 28 and 17, both against better teams than the Texans, who are reeling having lost super Mario Williams for the season.  A rested Ravens D should be able to stifle Daniels, Walter and Jones while a rested Ray Rice should be on for a good day against a D that even with Williams was already giving up 4.8 ypc.

Yes

New Orleans -4 @ Tampa Bay
The Saints have failed to score 30 just once so far, only managing 23 at Jacksonville.  The Bucs can count themselves lucky to have a winning record with 2 lucky wins against the Vikings and the Colts.  Blount is a doubt this week and Mike Williams has vanished this season. There's a chance that last weeks 48-3 loss was the real bucs.  Also Glazer owned if want anymore reason to hate them.

The company look

MONEYLINE PICKS 
New York Jets 1/3 vs Miami
Miami are going nowhere fast. It could be ugly but the Jets are going 2-3.

Philadelphia Eagles 5/6 @ Washington
Lose this one and i think they can forget the post season.  Without last weeks bad luck Vick will outscore Sexy Rexy and keep hope alive going into their bye.

Green Bay Packers 1/8 vs St Louis
This is why the moneyline picks are at the bottom this week.  As you may have noticed i pick in 9 seperate games every week. I didn't like any of the other games left and a winner is always better than a loser

It's my turn this week

Premier League Football

Season so far
34 bets
16 wins
18 losers
+1.96 pts


I'm drawing a total blank this week on the premier league. The weekend after international games is normally quiet, but not this quiet. Will hopefully be back next week. Just one bet in the Championship and that is

Middlesbrough 10/11 to beat Millwall


Good luck

NFL WEEK 5

Another poor effort at a write but i take that damn long researching the picks I'm shagged out to do a write up too.

MONEYLINE PICKS

Arizona Cardinals 6/5 @ Minnesota 
All 8 games of these 2 have been decided by 7 points or less so in the battles of the Andy Reid rejects I'll take the one he picked over the other.
Kansas City 6/5 @ Indy
Even Thomas Jones should be able to have a good games against the Indy D. If he doesn't Cassel to Bowe should be able to get the better of Curtis Painter who is somehow getting praised for his MNF performance in Tampa. He went 13/30 with a fumble and has a decimated O line in front of him.

The odd time the ball actually goes to him

Cincinnati Bengals 6/5 @ Jacksonville
Through 4 games the Bengals have the 3rd best pass D and the 7th best run D, which is no mean achievement against Hillis, Gore and Jackson. If they can hold MJD to an average game and make Blaine Gabbert beat them they'll win, with Benson running like a mad man because he knows he'll be taking 3 weeks off soon enough.

What?  wrong Benson? I'm confused ???

HANDICAP PICKS

Atlanta Falcons +6.5 vs Green Bay
Atlanta just don't lose at home, well except against Green Bay in the play offs, lets forget that one and remember that they did beat them in the regular season last year. Don't think Atlanta should get start at home to anyone.

Chicago Bears +5 vs Detriot
The Cowboys had the Lions beat last week until the bad half of Romo showed up. The Vikings had them beat in week 3 but let it slip. Should the bears get into a lead Forte will pound and pound and pound, he might just do that anyway.

Carolina Panthers +6.5 vs New Orleans
I think Cam can keep this close against the New Orleans D which is in one word, not good.

Totals Picks

Oakland @ Houston UNDER 49
New York @ New England UNDER 49 
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo UNDER 50

NFL Bets So Far

4  weeks gone so far so if you'd followed blindly all 4 weeks you'd  have bet 12 trixies and/or 12 singles. Here's how it's gone.

Summary

Trixies -   48 pts staked , 19.19 pts profit  
Singles -  36 pts staked , 14.6 pts profit

NFL WEEK 4

Last week did not go according to plan, just 4 out the 9 tips given came good and 3 trixies on the 9 tips would have made a 12pt loss. However 9 singles would have just been a 1.57pt loss. So if you're just a singles backer it was a complete shithouse. So onto week 4, this will be quite a quick write up as i'm short on inspriation at the moment.

All this weeks pictures are from searches i made looking for pics that would've made a bit of sense.

MONEYLINE PICKS

New York Jets 33/20 @ Baltimore
Rex Ryan has put his foot in his mouth once again this season my proclaiming the Jets the champs already. Last week the Jets were losing to Oakland while the Ravens stuck it up the rams. Rex simply wont stand for 2 losses in a row, his boys will have to toe the line and nail a victory here. ffs

'Rex Ryan feet'

Detriot Lions 11/10 @ Dallas 
If you saw the Cowboys/Skins MNF game it should not be hard to understand this pick, Stafford to Megatron should demolish the Cowboys D. T RO will try his best, but that's rarely good enough against a decent offence.

Buffalo Bills 8/13 @ Cincinnati
The last week of the play off dream, before reality sets in

'Buffalo Bills winning'

HANDICAP PICKS

New Orleans Saints -7 @ Jacksonville
34, 30 & 40 are the Saints 3 totals thus far, The Jags 16, 3 & 10. Need i say more.

'Jack Del Rio wet'

Houston Texans -4 vs Pittsburgh
Even the 2 Ed's, Balls and Milliband are more convincing that the Steelers offence.


San Diego Chargers -7 vs Miami
If last week wasn't the kick up the arse that they needed then nothing will be, seeing Oakland might be half decent should also snap them into shape. Miami are a team crying out for a QB not called Chad.

'Chad'

Totals Picks

Eagles vs 49ers UNDER 44
Vick IS banged up but is likely to play and most likely wont be his usual self, the 49ers are borderline useless, i'm thinking something like 27-10

Colts vs Bucs OVER 40.5
The Colts gave a very credible effort against the Steelers but gave up plenty of points in their first 2 games. The Bucs could enjoy themselves in what will probably be the lowest rated MNF of the year.

'Bad MNF ratings'

Cardinals vs Giants OVER 44.5
Think this could turn into a real shootout, even just a bit of a shootout should take the total over 45



More thought has gone into these picks than would appear from the write up but as well as being short of inspiration i am SEETHING at politics, imparticular stupid f***ing lefties at both local and national level

Good luck and i'll try to do better next time