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NFL WEEK 3

A slight down week in week 2 after the great start of the opening weekend. Straight into week 3's bets


STAR BETS (last week 2/3, season 4/6)
San Francisco 49ers -6.5 @ Minnesota 
A very good argument can be made saying that the 49ers are the best overall team in the NFL, and their defence is certainly good enough to restrict the Vikings to not very many points
Detriot Lions -3.5 @ Tennessee
The Lions have laboured to a 1-1 start (laboured meaning struggled, not spunked the national budget 10times over and destroyed the place) while the Titans have gone 0-2 in style. A perfect opportunity for the Lions to kickstart their season.

Indianapolis Colts -3 vs Jacksonville

MONEYLINES (last week 0/3, season 2/6)
New York Jets 16/19 @ Miami
Rex will have plenty of plans afoot to make Ryan Tannehill wonder what day it is. Wouldn't surprise me is Tony Sporano has been saving up one of 2 Tebow plays
Atlanta Falcons 6/4 @ San Diego
Just think this looks big for a good team vs Norv

Could be a Sting in the tale Sunday for the Norv World Order

Cleveland Browns 5/4 vs Buffalo
The Browns have put up 2 credible efforts so far with Trent Richardson living up to the hype,  The Bills offer a great opportunity to get off the mark providing the Browns can avoid giving up big plays to CJ Spiller

Not even this keeps Jay Cutler from permanently having a face like a smacked arse

TOTALS (last week 1/3, season 4/6)
St Louis @ Chicago OVER 43
Will Jay smile???

New England @ Baltimore UNDER 49.5
Philadelphia @ Arizona OVER 42

TV TRIXIE (last week 1/3, season 4/6)
New York Jets @ Miami
Houston Texans @ Denver
New England @ Baltimore UNDER 49.5

Treble pays 6.4 @ william hill

HANDICAP BETS (last week 2/3, season 4/6)
this week once again star bets and h/cap bets are 1 and the same

TOM PETTY SONG OF THE WEEK

STEVE WINWOOD SONG OF THE WEEK

WEEK 2 Results

HANDICAPS
ATLANTA -3 VS DENVER  5/6   WON
SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 VS DETRIOT WON
WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3 @ ST LOUIS 5/6 LOST

TOTALS
MINNESOTA @ INDIANPOLIS OVER 44.5  LOST
NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH OVER 41.5 LOST
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO OVER 44.5 WON

MONEYLINES
BALTIMORE RAVENS 11/10 @ PHILADELPHIA LOST
DALLAS COWBOYS 8/13 @ SEATTLE LOST
NEW ORLEANS 14/19 @ CAROLINA LOST

TV TRIXIE
NEW ORLEANS 14/19 @ CAROLINA LOST
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 8/13 @ ST LOUIS  LOST
SAN FRANCISCO -7 VS DETRIOT  24/23 WON

STAR BETS
the 3 handicap bets    2/3

NFL WEEK 2

Last weeks tips got the season off to a great start as you can see from the below posts, this week i'm letting the picks speak for themselves, sort of.  Week 2 is always a minefield becuase we just don't know how much of week 1 was real life, or was it just fantasy. Lets hope we don't get caught in a landslide.. [that's enough pretentious queen rubbish, ED]

HANDICAPS
ATLANTA -3 VS DENVER  5/6
Peyton looked ok on Sunday night but i think i'd take the Falcons at home giving 3 against 28 teams in the league

SAN FRANCISCO -6.5 VS DETRIOT
WASHINGTON REDSKINS -3 @ ST LOUIS 5/6
The Skins should be able to control the clock with anyone of around the 2 dozen running backs they roster. Sam Bradford just doesn't have anyone to throw to, not that he'd pick them out anyway.

Heluuuuuuuuuuu  La la la miburl.com/Av2n6Z

TOTALS
MINNESOTA @ INDIANPOLIS OVER 44.5
NEW YORK JETS @ PITTSBURGH OVER 41.5
KANSAS CITY @ BUFFALO OVER 44.5

MONEYLINES
BALTIMORE RAVENS 11/10 @ PHILADELPHIA
The Eagles fans could be on their teams backs faster than Mike Carlson pounces on a mistake by his co-host

DALLAS COWBOYS 8/13 @ SEATTLE
11 days since Romo and Co. took care of the Giants.  Can't have much trouble with a team with a Rookie QB coming off a defeat at Arizona, even if they turn the speakers all the way up to 11, can they ??

NEW ORLEANS 14/19 @ CAROLINA 
The Saints were done by the run last weekend, unluckily for Carolina they pay big bucks for 3 RB's who can't do it

Cam Newton's better half, well she popped up on a search for his bird anyway

TV TREBLE
NEW ORLEANS 14/19 @ CAROLINA
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 8/13 @ ST LOUIS
SAN FRANCISCO -7 VS DETRIOT  24/23

treble pays 5.54

STAR BETS
the 3 handicap bets

TOM PETTY SONG OF THE WEEK

SIR MACCA SONG OF THE WEEK

Week 1 Summary

WEEK 1 MONEYLINES

New England Patriots 4/9 @ Tennessee WON
Buffalo Bills 13/10 @ New York Jets LOST
Arizona Cardinals 24/19 vs Seattle Seahawks WON

HANDICAPS

Houston Texans -11.5 vs Miami Dolphins WON
*Detriot Lions -7.5 vs St Louis Rams LOST
*Chicago Bears -9.5 vs Indianapolis Colts WON

all 10/11


TOTALS  
Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns UNDER 42.5  WON
*Cincinnati @ Baltimore OVER 41 WON
San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders UNDER 47 WON
 
all 10/11


TV TRIXIE

Chicago Bears -10 vs Indianapolis Colts   68/67 WON
San Francisco @ Green Bay OVER 46.5    15/16 WON
Denver Bronocs 11/14 vs Pittsburgh WON

Pinnacle Prices, 6.98 treble



STAR BETS

Chicago Bears -9.5 vs Indianapolis Colts WON
Detriot Lions -7.5 vs St Louis Rams LOST
Cincinnati @ Baltimore OVER 41 WON

all 10/11

NFL season preview & Week 1

The NFL returned on Wednesday night this year and not Thursday as usual, (apparently Barack is more important the NFL season opener) meaning this is 2 days late and not 1 like it should be.  As time is not as freely available to me as it was last year the write ups may become ever barer than they were last year but rest assured that the necessary research and guesswork has gone into every selection made.

Romo was in Cruz control Wednesday night as opposed to the sloppy Giants

The aim of this blog is not only to make some cash (as we did very well last year season-wrap-up.html   regular-season-wrap-up.html ) but to also give us an interest in the majority of the games every weekend.

This season the same picks will continue with records kept based based on tirxies on 3 money lines/3 handicaps/3 totals, but also a Trixie on the 3 UK TV games each Sunday for those who like to watch the games and have a casual bet.  ON TOP OF THAT   I'll also be highlighting the STAR BETS of each weekend.

This season there is a game EVERY Thursday night, I'll probably miss that game most weeks due to random nature of the games where players are coming off 3 days rest but if i do have a pick in those games it will be up on here and advertised like buggery at https://twitter.com/tompetty17 .

ENJOY THE SEASON


WEEK 1 MONEYLINES

New England Patriots 4/9 @ Tennessee 
  Brady will have too much in his Locker for Jake to keep up with
Buffalo Bills 13/10 @ New York Jets
  Just look at the Jets offence!!!!. Mario Williams could have field day
Arizona Cardinals 24/19 vs Seattle Seahawks
   Always a sucker for a home dog vs Seattle

Rex Ryan, coming toe-wards the end of the line in New York

HANDICAPS

Houston Texans -11.5 vs Miami Dolphins 
  The Dolphins O makes the Jets O looks like the Dolphins O of the 80's (if that makes sense)
*Detriot Lions -7.5 vs St Louis Rams
  Only complacency would see Stafford, Johnson, Burleson and co failing to cover agains tthe Rams limp offence.

*Chicago Bears -9.5 vs Indianapolis Colts
  First game in the NFL at Soldier field, Hard Luck

all 10/11 

Mrs Rysn Tannehill, The Dolphins wont win many games but Ryan will still be smiling

TOTALS

Philadelphia Eagles @ Cleveland Browns UNDER 42.5
   The Browns wont score many but could limit the Eagles.

*Cincinnati @ Baltimore OVER 41 
    No Suggs this year could lead to a leaky D in Baltimore, but at home theey have plenty of  offence to counter it.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders UNDER 47
    This game could be played on the ground, particulaly the Raiders who wont want to put games in Carson Palmers hands unless they really have to.


all 10/11

Should feel at home in the Dawg Pound

TV TRIXIE

Chicago Bears -10 vs Indianapolis Colts   68/67
San Francisco @ Green Bay OVER 46.5    15/16
Denver Bronocs 11/14 vs Pittsburgh

Pinnacle Prices, 6.98 treble

No Danny this season on C4 so Mike might get space on the sofa

STAR BETS

Chicago Bears -9.5 vs Indianapolis Colts
Detriot Lions -7.5 vs St Louis Rams
Cincinnati @ Baltimore OVER 41 

all 10/11





DIVISION BY DIVISION PREVIEW

AFC EAST
If the Pats (2/7) don't walk it i shall eat my metaphorical hat. You could make an argument that Tim Tebow is the 2nd best QB in the division and not get laughed out the room, that's how bad the other teams are, and the rest of their offense's aren't much better.

AFC NORTH
See last years preview, nothing much has changed, and i'll stick with the Ravens @ 13/8

AFC SOUTH
The Texans (Corals 2/7 gen 1/5) should walk this division as the odds suggest.  They've lost Super Mario Williams to the Bills but on the other side of the ball have Matt Shaub back and should have far too much for their divisional rivals who are the in the beginnings of being works in progress.

AFC WEST
The hardest division to call in the AFC.  I'll take a shot on the Raiders (37/5) given there are reason to doubt their rivals, (Manning health/outdoors, Norv, Cassell) and keeps everything crossed that Darren McFadden keeps fit for the whole season.

NFL EAST
The Cowboys got off to a great start on Wednesday night with a win over the Giants in the Meadowland, mainy due to the fact that Romo didn't Romo thing up after a pick in the first half. They should really have won the division last year but for a December mini implosion.  I think after a great start they'll get over the line this time at 2/1

NFL NORTH
This should all be about the Pack 1/2. Da Bears could make it interesting with the Lions pushing them. The Vikings can also give anyone a game on their day, sadly it's only their day 4 days a year.

NFL SOUTH
This is the Falcons 6/4 year, if they dont win the division this year they never will. The Saints have Sean Payton banned for the year, a defence too scared to tackle since the Roger Goddell put bounty's on their heads, and Drew Brees now cares about an extra few million he'll never spend more than the City of New Orleans.  Atlanta have Roddy and Julio down by the endzone and Michael Turner hopefully has one big year left in him  *Pick stands even on the back of the overturning of suspensions

NFL WEST
Seattle have the making of a decent team but wont be strong enough to seriously challenge the 49ers 8/15

Graeme Nash give his thoughts on Seahawks training camp

TOM PETTY SONG OF THE WEEK

SIR MACCA SONG OF THE WEEK

THE NFL IS BACK.... AND SO AM I

'FULL'  SEASON 'PREVIEW' COMING UP ON FRIDAY

Baseball Update

Quick run through of how my picks are doing now we are roughly 50 games through the season.

Al East: Tampa Bay (11/2) - Joint 1st but all 5 teams within 2.5 games of each other.  A lot of their bats out of form or injured but so have the Yankees and Red Sox

Central: Detroit (2/9) - 5.5 games behind the White Sox. Home stand coming up though they need to buck up a bit

West: Texas (11/10) - 5 games clear of the Angels who are starting to get good, will be a close race.

NL East: Atlanta (7/1) - 2 games back of the Nats but all 5 are within 3 of each other. Liking their chances

Central: Milwaukee (3/1) - 6.5 games back. Bats need to warm up with the weather

West: San Fran (17/10) - 5 games behind the Dodgers but they wont last with Kemp using former soccerball player Michael Owen's hamstrings

Baseballl

The Boys of Summer are back in full swing so i thought the blog deserved a new post having been barren since the Superbowl. Here are my picks for 6 divisions, they may be touch late but at the time of writing 28 teams still have 160 games to go.  There are a million other places on the web to get detailed previews, this is just a very (very) brief overview.

For previews and picks of all the games on Espn America go to http://ukusbetting.blogspot.com/

AL East

The Yankees are favs as always but i'll go with the Tampa Bay Rays who are a false price given the name recognition of the Yankees and Boston Red Sox.  Pick: Tampa Bay Rays 11/2 (VC)

AL Central

If the Detriot Tigers don't win this division it will be because Prince Fielder has burst and Miguel Cabrera has become a full time drunk. The price though reflects the chances of these happening.      Pick: Detroit Tigers 2/9 (PP)

AL West

A straight toss up between the LA Angels and the Texas Rangers.  Odds reflect that it should be tighter than a tight thing and i fully expect both teams to make the post season. I'll take the Texas bats to just edge it. Pick: Texas Rangers 11/10


NL West

Another tight call. The LA Dodgers price is well out of line at Stan James if you're lucky enough to be able to get a bet on there but i'm going to take the Giants pitching to take the division. Pick: San Francisco Giants 17/10 (Sky)

NL Central


The bookies have this as a 3 way contest, which is fair enough.  I'll take my chances of the Brewers pitching with the Reds being the main danger. Pick: Milwaukee Brewers 3/1 (VC)

NL East

The Braves choked their post season place as badly as the Red Sox did last year but not this time. Plus they have a player called Contanza. Pick: Atlanta Braves 7/1 (Boyle)

Enjoy the season and check out the update to my Beatles top 52 .

Season Wrap Up

Superbowl bets resulted in a 21 point profit as shown below

0.5 pts on each   1st TD scorer Tom Brady 33/1 , Eli Manning 80/1  -1
0.5 pts Victor Cruz Superbowl MVP 14/1  -0.5
0.5 pts  Highest Scoring Half, DRAW 22/1  +11
0.5 pts Owner 11/2, who will mvp thank first -0.5
1pts Pats leading at end of 3rd Qtr and lose  7/1  +7
New York Giants to win 4pts @ 5/4  +5 

add that to the 9.04 pt LOSS from the other play off bets  makes a profit of 11.96 pts for the play offs.

This on top of a very successful regular season of 29.85 pts profit to level stakes.

Barring an Act of God or a change of mind i will return next season for the NFL.  If the inspiration is with me an MLB previw may appear here along with other random posts throughout the spring and summer months. Any posts that do appear are sure to be plugged to death on twitter @schmilsson17

Thanks for reading

Superbowl Bets

I've decided to throw a few darts, afterall the Superbowl only happens once a year. We showed a regular season level stakes profit of 29.85 profits and my bets made at the start of the play offs will make a 9.04 pts loss if the Giants win and a 10.96 profit if the Patriots win. So as i've got a bit to play with here's what i'm betting


0.5 pts on each   1st TD scorer Tom Brady 33/1 , Eli Manning 80/1 
0.5 pts Victor Cruz Superbowl MVP 14/1
0.5 pts  Highest Scoring Half, DRAW 22/1
0.5 pts Owner 11/2, who will mvp thank first
1pts Pats leading at end of 3rd Qtr and lose  7/1
New York Giants to win 4pts @ 5/4

THE SUPERBOWL

Well i have nothing to add to the excellent preview from Mike Carlson  w/ Nat Coombs on this weeks Americarnage podcast. I will probably back the Giants for a level profit on the play off and post a few prob bets over the weekend. Here's Tom Petty's half time show from The 2008 Pats v Giants Superbowl to make your visit to this blog well worth while.

Championship Weekend

Sadly there will not be an in depth preview here like there normally is ;)  as I have been struck down by a severe debilitating illness and unable to provide my usual high quality opinions.  I don't think you are missing too much as from a quick look just about anything could happen in the NFC championship game and it's not one for putting down the big bucks on, save that for big bucks.  I think the Ravens are a bit of value in the AFC title game at 11/4. Yes they may have limped over the line against Houston last week but the Texans have a kwality defence and Flacco was not as bad as is being made out. The Pats may have seen off GOD and his Broncos last weekend but in the form of Ray Lewis they go against the plea bargaining DEVIL and i expect a much different outcome.  That said I will refrain from betting given my current state of health and will take a watching brief knowing I will be in a good position if the Pats win and an even better one if the Ravens do.  Good Luck in your bets this weekend.

P.S  Thanks in advance for the hundreds of get well wishes that i will no doubt be receiving in the coming days, i hope to be in a better state of health to bring you all a top class superbowl preview in 2 weeks time.

Divisional Round Wrap Up

A poor week which saw profits on Saturday's games and losses on Sunday's which gave a loss of 1.92 points, which when knocked off Wild card weekends profit gives a total loss thus far for the play offs of 1.04 pts. However the outright selections of  'New England  4/1  4 pts, Baltimore 8/1 3.5 pts, Houston   66/1  0.5 pts'  are doing ok.

NFL Playoffs - Divisional Round Weekend

Last week i was full of inspiration and by my low standards produced a decent preview of the weekends action. This week the inspiration has deserted me like it did Neil Young in the 1980's and popular music in general from around 1996. Here's this weeks schedule and I'll breeze through game by game

NFL Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 14
New Orleans @ San Francisco 49ers FOX 9:30PM - Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston,
Denver @ New England Patriots CBS 1:00AM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Sunday, January 15
Houston @ Baltimore Ravens CBS 6:00PM - Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf
NYG @ Green Bay Packers FOX 9:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver


The many different previews i read before lifting their thoughts and picks onto here all say something like 'the Saints will score 24-27 points and i don't see the 49ers matching that', apart from the ones that don't that is.  I don't know who wins this one, It will probably be the Saints but i feel a much better bet is to go for the 2nd half to be the highest scoring at Even Money with Paddy power for 5 points.

 
TEBOWMANIA rolls into New England on Saturday night to take on Brady and Co,  that's company not Stompe.  The Patriots will win this game, they will take away any chance of the deep ball that Pittsburgh threatened Tebow into throwing and wait for McGahee to fumble or Jeebus himself to throw an interception. I don't think this one will ever be in much doubt but whether or not the Patriots cover will depend on if Belichick wants to stick the boot into the 2nd coming and how long Denver go before making the critical error.  I'm steering clear of the spread and going having 2.5 points on Aaron Hernandez to score a TD at 2.23 with pinnacle and 1.5 points on Tom Brady at 7/1 to do the same with Corals as Denver will look to take away Gronkowski the Pats like a QB sneak at the goal line

It was either this or Bibi Jones, but this is a family blog.

The first game on Sunday sees The Texans go to fortress MT&T Bank stadium to take on Baltimore. I've made my mind up that Baltimore are winning this and rather than make up 115 pages of guff to attempt to justify my decision I'll do it in a few lines.  I wasn't impressed with Houston last week, particularly in the first half  when the Bengals could have built themselves a decent lead if they hadn't been in full self destruct mode.  The Ravens old guard on defence will be well rested (as long as they've been sat at home not killing anyone) and looking to terrorise and befuddle TJ Yates while not letting Arian Foster beat them by himself, Boldin is back after minor surgery to give Flacco his no1 receiver back which will take a little bit of defencive pressure off Ray Rice. The Ravens won 8 of their 12 wins (8/8 at home) by at least 8 points including a 29-14 win over the Texans, I'm expecting a similar outcome this time with the Ravens winning by a couple of scores.  Baltimore -7.5 , 5 points @ 10/11 (Gen)

Ravens are aiming high, but not in the Ricky Williams sense

The final game of the weekend is the cool pick for an upset with the Giants going to Green Bay. Well us here at kjbetting (me) are not cool and we're not stupid either. Green Bay won in New York by the dreaded 38-35 scoreline, having to drive to kick a field goal in the last 2 minutes having gone to sleep to let the Giants back into it.   The Giants are supposed to have 'momentum' having scraped their way to the division title and victory in a pretty uninspiring game vs Atlanta, but I'd much rather have a 15-1 record, a bye week home advantage and Aaron Rodgers.
Green Bay -7.5, 6 points @ 10/11 (Gen)

Big Ben being aggressively pursued by a Clay

Wild Card Weekend P&L

3 out of 4 tips won but alas only a 0.878 pt profit

Wild Card Weekend - Day 1 Reflections

A few quick points

1. The Bengals at the Texans was a good game until Cincy decide to implode starting in the last 2 minutes of the first half.  With 1 time out and a rookie QB the smart play must be to run the clock out to half time and go in level. But with the way Lewis used his challenges the smart play was always likely to be the outsider.  Houston's victory guaranteed at least 1 of my Superbowl picks making the AFC championship game.

2.  Unders in the end didn't fare too well in the New Orleans v Detriot game  despite trading at 1.4 into the 2nd half. New Orleans continue to be a shocking price to win it all now being a top price 4/1 and generally shorter.

3. I'm surprised Baltimore are still available at 8/1 for the Superbowl, unless of course they would have been shorter if it was Pittsburgh visiting next week?  no i don't think so either.

Wild Card Weekend & Outright Market

It's play offs time and here's the schedule. All games are live on the evil Murdoch empires Sky Sports, the Superbowl is also live on the do goody lefties BBC. all times are GMT

Wild Card Games
Saturday, January 7
Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans NBC 9:30PM - Tom Hammond, Mike Mayock, Alex Flanagan
Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints NBC 1:00AM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya

Sunday, January 8
Atlanta Falcons @ New York Giants FOX 6:00PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos CBS 9:30PM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

NFL Divisional Playoffs
Saturday, January 14
New Orleans/Atlanta/NYG @ San Francisco 49ers FOX 9:30PM - Kenny Albert, Daryl Johnston,  Cincinnati/Pittsburgh/Denver @ New England Patriots CBS 1:00AM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms

Sunday, January 15
Houston/Pittsburgh/Denver @ Baltimore Ravens CBS 6:00PM - Greg Gumbel, Dan Dierdorf
Detroit/Atlanta/NYG @ Green Bay Packers FOX 9:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver

NFL Conference Finals Sunday, January 22
AFC Championship Game CBS 8:00PM - Jim Nantz, Phil Simms
NFC Championship Game FOX 11:30PM - Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Pam Oliver

Sunday, January 29
Pro Bowl NBC 12:00AM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya

Sunday, February 5
Super Bowl XLVI NBC 11:30PM - Al Michaels, Cris Collinsworth, Michele Tafoya, Alex Flanagan


As you'll see Wild Card weekend kick off with The Bengals @ The Texans because the league is saving the important games till later.  The Bengals prize for winning would be a trip to Foxboro to take on the Patriots, The Texans are playing for a Trip to Baltimore.  Very easy to make strong cases for both teams in this one but alas the NFL is not a New Labour organised non competitive sports day so they can't both win. I'm taking the home team reliant on a rested master running back Arian Foster backed up by Ben Tate carrying the load, and TJ Yates not making mistakes and finding Andre Johnson when he has to.  Dalton has been struggling a little bit recently for the Bengals and this game might just be a year too soon for him.

Houston -3    2 pts @ 1.8  (Gen)

Taking on The Saints in New Orleans is difficult take to say the least, almost as hard as taking on the Steelers In Pittsburgh or fighting Lamont Peterson in Washington.  A win for the Saints means they're going to San Francisco and a win for the Lions means another trip to Green Bay.  Detriot are here after failing to beat said Green Bay who were without Aaron Rodgers, giving up 45 points to Matt Flynn and earning him millions of dollars in doing so.  This game has the highest line ever for a play off game with the total set at 58.5. I'm confidently taking the under here for 2 main reasons.  1. The Saints defence aided by the superdome crowd only gave up more than 17 points in 1 home game this year (w3 vs Houston)  2. Drew Brees has no superficial, tainted, basically meaningless passing record to go for this week so clock eating, keeping the defence off the field and fresh for the coming weeks should be a higher priority.

Under 58.5 points   5 pts @ 2.00  (Pinnacle)

WHAT, WHAT WHAT WHAT, SHIT

 The first Sunday game is probably the most interesting game of the 4 as the Atlana Falcons go to East Rutherford to take on the New York Giants. However I'm getting a little bit bored now and refer to Matt Ryan's 84.7 QB rating on the road and i fear that he and the team might have a touch of the Romo's about them.

Giants -3  2 pts @  2.02  (Pinnacle)

Cruzing to Green Bay

The final game of Wild Card weekend is what some have dubbed as 'The Virgin* vs The Rapist**" although in reality this is going to be a battle of defences as the line of 33.5 suggests. This game comes down to just how bad Tebow will be.  To say he has been awful the last 2 weeks would be an insult to awful qb's like Blaine Gabbert, there are really no words suitable for a family blog to describe how bad he's been.  I have a feeling that Fox might cut Tebows pass attempts back to around 16 from the average of 24 he's been 'throwing' the last month. If he does Denver should be able to keep pace with the Mendenhallless, low scoring Steeler offence

Denver +10   3 pts @ 1.746   (Pinnacle)

no thanks

Superbowl Betting - Team by team

Current odds can be found here. 

Green Bay 2/1  Clear market favourites but don't really offer any value and even if it's not the Saints they come against in a potential NFC title game it's probably only just above fair.

New Orleans 5/1  Terrible, terrible value. A basic roll up of very tight and probably totally wrong projected odds of their path to glory is,  1.18 * 1.6 (@ san fran) * 1.8 (@ GB?) * 1.8 (sb)  = 6.17. If you fancy the Saints, take them game by game.

San Francisco 12/1  Not brilliant value either, i will trust you to figure this out for yourself based on the previous example.  Can anyone really see Alex Smith winning the Superbowl?

New York Giants 25/1   1.67 to beat the Falcons. Are they really then only14/1 shots to win @ Green Bay & SF/NO and then The big one?  If you think they are you might be crazy enough to live in NYC.

Atlanta Falcons 50/1  Same as the Giants, are they only 20/1 to clear that path ? In both cases i see them maybe fair if they avoid playing the Saints, terrible value if play both.


Detriot Lions 66/1 (85 betfair)  laughable price, HA HA HA

New England Patriots 4/1  Doubts are being raised about their prospects given their slow starts, being 17-0 and 21-0 down to the Dolphins and Bills in the last 2 weeks and that they can't afford to do that in the play offs.  My view is that their potential divisional round opponents wont be good enough to do that in Foxboro and Belichick will have prevented it from happening again anyway.  For a change i actually see a bit of value in this price.


Baltimore Ravens 8/1  To get to the AFC title game they'll have to either, take TJ Yates to school or probably have to beat the Steelers for the 3rd time this season, never an easy task, but whichever they have to do i think they will do well provided Cam Cameron doesn't go into Dolphins mode. They'd then be well primed to repeat their play off win of a couple of years ago at the Patriots if they had to. Or even better they could be at home again. Some value here too.  


Pittsburgh Steelers 14/1  Don't see value here as i think it's pretty sure they'll have to beat both the Ravens and the Patriots to get to the big one. Then i would have them as Dawgs against any of the first 2 in the NFC.


Houston Texans 66/1 is a stand out price with sky bet. I've seen worse prices, a lot of them listed above


Cincinnati Bengals 100/1 As i explained in my match preview (maybe i didn't) Dalton is struggling a little bit and i don't belive Benson is good enough to lead a team through the play offs



Denver Tebows 125/1  not unless you're a believer, or like being shafted up ....


Recommendations  All to win the Superbowl

New England  4/1    4 pts
Baltimore   8/1         3.5 pts
Houston   66/1         0.5 pts   

*proclaimed    **accused

PLAYOFFS!!!

Regular Season Wrap Up

A solid final week wrapped up a successful regular season in which a levels stakes profit of 29.85 pts profit was made (Moneylines 6.23pts, Handicaps 17.2pts, Totals 6.41pts)  from 156 pts staked. There were 91 winning picks, 3 pushes and 62 losers.   Trixies made a 42.02 pts profit from 208 pts staked.  Even if i do say so myself, considering i picked at least 9 different games every week i think the results have been pretty good.

In typical PDC Darts fashion I will gloss over my god damn awful division picks that I made and instead focus on the Top Running Back and Wide Receiver tips i made


Most Regular Season Rushing Yards
Maurice Jones Drew 16/1 - The Jags have decided to hold a weekly raffle for who gets to play QB this season. I'm pretty confident this weeks winner Luke McCown will do nothing else except hand the ball off to MJD and expect the others to do the same

 Most Regular Season Receiving Yards

Calvin Johnson 10/1 - Whether or not megatron will actually get the most receiving yards is all down to if his Matthew Stafford can stay fit. IF he does megatron will be the leading receiver, if he doesn't Johnson still has a good shot of making the top 4.

Comeback tomorrow for  WILD CARD WEEKEND TIPS