NFL Week 17

The regular season concludes this weekend and this blog will be in profit unless i go all Cliff Clavin and go all in when i don't know the answer . Lucky I'm not going to and here are week 17's picks. Drop by next week for my play off picks.

Over 2012 i shall be contributing the list of my top 52 Beatles songs on the excellent blog http://www.blackpoolboy.blogspot.com/  as well as a song by the late great Harry Nilsson each week. These songs will also be posted on a significant delay on the music wall of this site which appears not to have been updated since the NFL season began.

MONEYLINE PICKS
Tennessee Titans 1.71 @ Houston
The titans have a semi realistic shot of making the play offs. Houston on a 2 game losing run and locked into the no3 seed.

New York Giants 1.61 vs Dallas
This is Dallas in a must win game on the road, prime time

Baltimore Ravens 1.8 @ Cincinnati
The Bengals have beaten 1 team currently with a winning record all season. For me this game is the difference between Baltimore making the Superbowl and not. Ray and Ricky will run them to the promised land.

Tony has NO HAND

HANDICAP PICKS
Atlanta -11.5 vs Tampa   2.010
A game that might end up meaningless to Atlanta, but then again it might not.  Tampa are the definition of a team Free Fallin and have been playing for the off season for 6 weeks. No reason to think this will change now.

Indianapolis +3.5 @ Jacksonville 1.943
Would the Jags want the Colts to land one the top prospects ever?? 

New York Jets +3 @ Miami   2.01
No bush for Miami, and when you have no Bush you're easy to lick

TOTALS PICKS
Bears @ Vikings OVER 41  1.971
McCown can nail a back up job somewhere in 2012 with another solid show here vs one of the leagues worst defences.  The Vikes have scored plenty of points at home, also conceded sack loads.

Lions @ Packers OVER 45.5  1.952
Reports of bad wind in Green Bay have seen the line for this game fall 4 pts at the time of writing. I you're put off by this take over 33.5 in the Pittsburgh game instead but for the records the original pick stands

Chiefs @ Broncos OVER 37.5   1.952
Orton vs Tebow. I'm expecting Orton to pass pass pass to try and show he's better than the big Tebowski leading to a shoot out, relatively speaking

Brady Quinn - The Back up

AFTER 16 WEEKS
Trixies, 36.3 pts profit from 204 pts stakes, an ROI of  17.8%
Singles, 27.74 pts prodit from 147 pts staked, an ROI of 21.3%

NFL SATURDAY, WEEK 16 PICKS

A treble landed again last week taking trixie profits to 42.47 and singles profits to 28.39 points for the season. Straight onto this weeks Christmas EVE SATURDAY, games.

MONEYLINE PICKS

EAGLES 2.14  @ Cowboys
GIANTS 2.3 @ Jets
CHARGERS 2.2 @ Lions

3 in 1 summaries this week.  The thoery on the Eagles pick is 2 fold.  Firstly, if The Giants win against the Jets it will render the game meaningless and the Cowboys would be wise to go easy on their key players for what will be a 'win and you're in' game  at New York in New Jersey in week 17.  Secondly, if the Jets win then this becomes a first rate chance for the Cowboys to choke.  Dallas are not in the greatest form either, particularly on defence giving up an average of 24 points per game in the last 5. On the offensive side, Felix Jones is doubtful and Emmitt Smith is reported waiting by his phone.
The Jets are hardening as favourites for the visit of the Giants, only reason i can think of why that might be is that Rexy boy is sucking off the toes and a few big players in Vegas.  Too much emphasis has been put on last weeks G men no show vs the Redskins.  Manning should be able to find one of Cruz, Nicks & Manningham every time he steps back to pass.
Chargers pick is going back to the tried and tested method of opposing Detriot again any decent team. 

Revis Can't cover up here.

HANDICAP PICKS

BRONCOS -2.5 @ Bills
CHIEFS -2.5 vs Raiders
49ERS -2 @ Seahawks

TOTALS PICKS

DOLPHINS @ PATRIOTS UNDER 48
JAGUARS @ TITANS OVER 40
FALCONS @SAINTS OVER 52.5

NFL WEEK 15

Got back on the winning trail last weekend thanks to a late comeback from the Giants and a late late late touchdown for the Houston Texans who along with the Crads (half Card half Crap, one of @Carlsonsports old ones that) gave us 3 moneyline winners out of 3. Others disappointed but one mustn't get greedy.

MONEYLINE PICKS
Detriot Lions 1.84 @ Oakland
New York Jets 2.3 @ Philly
Baltimore Ravens 1.714 @ San Diego

HANDICAP PICKS
St Louis +7.5 vs The Bengals  (1.813)
Seattle + 4  @ Da Bears
New Orleans -6.5 @ The Vikings

TOTALS PICKS
New England @ Denver OVER 46
Cleveland @ Arizona OVER 37 (1.877)
Carolina @ Houston UNDER 45.5 (1.893)

NFL WEEK 14

HANDICAP PICKS

New Orleans Saints -3.5 @ Tennessee
Big game for the Titans who need a 3 game swing if they're going to pip the Texans to the division.  They're also bang in the race for the final play off spot along with 4 other teams on 7-5 so this is indeed a huge game for the former Oilers, their biggest since the 41-7 loss to the Texans coming off a bye. The Saints need to keep winning too, and Brees should have too much ammo through the air to make sure they do

Brees shows where he will have the Titans D

Miami Dolphins -3 vs Philly
Mike Vick is back but Maclin is doggin it this week. VY wasn't all that bad during his stint under centre  If Miami hadn't thrown a couple of games away early on they'd have a sniff of the play offs but they're still playing hard to try and save Sparano's job, Philly don't seem to bothered about big Andy Reid.

Kansas City Chiefs +11 @ New York Jets
The Sanchize giving 11 against a quality defence, i don't think so Tim .

MONEYLINE PICKS
The moneyline picks have been a bit disappointing as of late, but as a famous rocker once said, 'i wont back down' so here's my picks

Houston Texans 2.27 @ Bengals
The Texans named Yates the starter the rest of the season but i need to know if he can cone through in the big pressure situations before jumping on the bandwagon.  The saving grace for the Texans this week is that the Bengals are slowing but surely, free fallin with 1 win in 4 and Cincinnati, you got lucky in that one.

The Texans open up the play book

Arizona Cardinals 2.66 vs 49ers
Playing through the 49ers D has being trying to break through Walls so far this season but the Cards will pull all the stops to try and thwart their division rival. If they fail they'll go down swingin and might get lucky, because even the losers get lucky sometimes.

New York Giants 2.88 @ Dallas
Tony Romo is mystery man, awesome record in November, shocking in December. It's almost all or nothin for New York, win and they control their destiny, lose and they're all but done. I sense that the usual Cowboys December surrender continues here.

TOTALS PICKS

New England @ Washington  UNDER 48.5
Atlanta @ Carolina UNDER 47.5
Buffalo @ San Diego UNDER 48

NFL WEEK 13 - come for the tips, stay for the pictures

Standards are slipping. 2 poor weeks with no trebles up and only 1 double means that Trixie profits are down to just 6.3 points. Level stakes singles are still showing a 21.7 pts profit so it's not all doom and gloom. It's not just the quality of the tips that's fallen but also the quality of the write ups. New readers (if there are any) should feel lucky that I've lasted this long, I've normally resorted to posting vintage music now now.......  what? i did that last week. ANYWAY here are this weeks tips, and a few pictures.


HANDICAP PICKS
New England Patriots -20 vs Indianapolis
The Pats have won by 21, 31 and 18 the last 3 weeks, all those games against teams that have actually won games this year.  The Pats will love humiliating them damn colts.

35-0 and he'll still want blood

San Diego Chargers -3 @ Jacksonville
Gabbert looks worse as time goes on, Del Rio and his leather jacket have been given the boot, Norv might get left behind if the Chargers lose this one but i think he'll cling on for a little while yet.

New Orleans Saints -8.5 vs Detroit
Life wont be easy in the 'Mercedez Benz' superdome for the Lions without the boy named Suh.

No i didn't, No i didn't, No i didn't, No i didn't, ok i did.

MONEYLINE PICKS
Atlanta 1.714 @ Houston
Houston are officially playing this game with no QB and Atlanta has one of the best run defences in the NFL

Dirty Rotten Scoundrel

Denver 2.150 @ Minnesota

BELIEVE

Dallas 1.495 @ Arizona

Too Sweet!!

TOTALS
Carolina @ Tampa OVER 47
Carolina has the worst D in the NFL.  Tampa's is not much better
Green Bay @ NY Giants OVER 52
If the Giants don't start this game well there could very well be some EARLY MOANING  from the Giants fans

ALL SUPPORT MORT

Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh OVER 42.5
The Bengals defence has become a little bit leaky in recent weeks, even Cleveland got 20 points

NFL WEEK 12

2 out of 3 ats on the thanksgiving day games, which isn't bad but obviously could be better.  Lets try to do better with the rest of this weeks action.


HANDICAP PICKS
New York Jets -9 vs Buffalo
Atlanta -9 vs Minnesota
Seattle -3.5 vs Washington

MONEYLINE PICKS
Arizona 5/4 @ St Louis
Tampa Bay 17/10 @ Tennessee
Indianapolis 6/4 vs Carolina

TOTALS PICKS
Chicago @ Oakland OVER 41
New England @ Philly UNDER 50.5
Pittsburgh @ Kansas City UNDER 40

Thanksgiving Day NFL & an Update

Thursday is Thanksgiving day in the good ol' US of A. The day when everyone in America eats turkey, watches the Lions get thrashed, maybe watches Dallas in hope that they lose too, and then gets ready to raid the shops on black Friday. What it means for us is the chance to have a Thanksgiving day Trixie

Green Bay @ Detriot
THE  THANKSGIVING GAME.  The Lions were in danger of losing their gig as thanksgiving hosts a couple of years ago, but now they are competitive again that threat seems to have disappeared. This game should be anything but boring with Detriot averaging 30 points a game and the Pack averaging 35, both sides have also given up around 100 points in their last 4 games.  That suggests that it could be a tight game BUT Green Bay tends to give up the majority of their points in garbage time, which in the Packs case is most of the 2nd half.  I sense a similar pattern to this game but this time there will be no slacking off from Green Bay as every one of the players will be keen to get their hands on the coveted Fox Galloping Gobbler award.

PICK: I can't have confidence in a side that hasn't beaten a good team all year and  gave up 35 points to a team who threw 4 picks last week. Rodgers wont throw 4 picks,  Green Bay -6 

This is whats it's allllllll about

Miami @ Dallas
Part 2 of the Thanksgiving trilogy is at JerryDome as the resurgent Dolphins take on T RO & Co.  I never thought Miami were a contender in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes and think they have the quality to be a .500 team which if they had beaten Cleveland in week 3 and not felt the force of GOD in Tebows homecoming they would be. However there is a common theme amongst these teams, their passing game is  awful and has been unable to take advantage of Miami's massive weakness, their pass defence. Tony Romo with Bryant, Witten and Robinson, plus DeMarco Murray providing great support in the running game should be able to exploit it and prove too strong.

PICK:  Miami's revival stops here,  Dallas -7 @ Evens

Give us a gobble

San Francisco @ Baltimore
The late game sees the Harbaugh lead 49ers make the ridiculously unfair 5 hour flight East on a very short week to take on the unpredictable Harbaugh lead Ravens. Actually maybe the Ravens aren't that unpredictable, They will play well against and beat the good teams, and will lose to the rags.  The is a huge game for both team with Baltimore in a tussle with the Steelers for the division and possible home advantage and the 49ers need to keep winning to secure at least the No2 seed in the play offs. I've a sneaky suspicion that the Saints might pinch the No2 seeding and for that to happen the 49ers go down here.

PICK: The Ravens beat good teams, San Fran are a good team on a very short week, Baltimore -3.5 @ Evens

Check back on Friday for the weekend selections

Thanksgiving song of the day

PLAYER SPECIALS UPDATE

At the start of the season i gave 4 tips for the season top rusher and 4 for the top receiver and with everyone now having had their bye weeks now is a good time to check their progress.

Top Rusher
Advised
Maurice Jones Drew 16/1,  Currently 2nd with 941yds, 78 yds behind LeSean McCoy
Michael Turner 12/1, 5th on 888yds, 38yds behind 4th place.
Darren McFadden 25/1,  16th on 641 yards. I said at the start of the season that the price was based on his injury record and he was a great price if he could stay healthy, he was the leading rusher when i posted the first update, but he couldn't stay healthy.
Ahmad Bradshaw 66/1, 29th on 440yds, injured aswell although was unlikely to threaten

Top Reveiver
Advised
Calvin Johnson 10/1, Currently in 3rd with 974 yds. Welker leads with 1028 and Steve Smith of Carolina is 2nd with 992.
Mike Wallace 12/1, 4th on 922 yds
Dwayne Bowe 33/1,  12th on 750 yds, wont be threatening with Palko at QB.

Brandon Marshall 33/1, 13th on 747yds, Moore is doing ok but he's probably too far behind.

I am not posting an update on my divison winner bets becuase in general, they stink.

NFL WEEK 11

Last week saw us back to winning ways thanks to all 3 handicap picks doing the business. Now showing 23.38 pts profit for 3 weekly trixies and 23.675 pts profit for level stakes singles

HANDICAP PICKS
Oakland -1 @ Minnesota
The Carson Palmer version of the Raiders got going last Thursday with an impressive win at the Super Chargers while the Vikings were absolutely dredful on Monday, albeit at Green Bay. -1 is a steal on the Raiders who are 3-1 on the road.

The Bush you can support

St Louis -1 vs Seattle
I feel that the Rams are coming around and they can ride Steven Jackson to a home victory here.

Chicago -3.5 vs San Diego
One is on a 4 game winning streak, one is on a 4 game losing streak. One has D-FENCE the other doesn't. The mosters of the midway should crush the super chargers.

MONEYLINE PICKS
New York Giants 1.45 vs Philadelphia
Vick missed Wednesday and Thursday practice, maybe out? CONFIRMED OUT, and so is Maclin
Jacksonville 1.99 @ Cleveland

No wonder he looks angry, he likes the Browns

Green Bay, San Francisco, New England Treble @ 1.49
(pinny odds)
Couldn't find a third pick so this will have to do.

TOTALS PICKS
Cinccinnati @ Baltimore OVER 40.5
All 4 Ravens games have been over the line, with the Ravens scoring at least 29 in each of them. All 4 Bengals road games have been over the line, with the Bengals scoring at least 20 in all of them.

Buffalo @ Miami UNDER 43
The Bills offence has been found out a bit in the last 3 weeks and Miami's offence being what it is, unders looks a good call here.

Another Bush you can support

Dallas @ Washinton UNDER 41.5
Romo at home and Romo on the road are 2 different players. Rex Grossman and John Beck are both shit.

NFL Week 10

Week 10 singnals the start of football on Thrusday nights. Yes thats right, a league obsessed with safety and doing everything it can to prevent injuries and injury inducing takles, makes players play games just 4 days apart just so its TV station has programing that is not just talking heads.  In protest of the crazyness all picks for Thursday games (thanksgiving aside) will be exclusive to twitter @kjbetting

As things stand 3 weekly 1pt tirxies show a 13.85pt profit and 12 weekly 1pt singles are showing a 17.835 pt profit.

Handicap Picks
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 @ Cincinnati 
If at first you don't suceed, give up and try trading for a living, or something like that anyway. The Steelers let us down for 3/3 last week by switching their brains off in the last 2:30,  i mean throwing the ball on 3rd down when the Ravens had 1 time out left was pure insanity and in the end it probably cost them the game.  Tomlin's boys will be fired up here and defeat, as 'no' usually is will not be an option for Big Ben

Chance of defeat

Miami Dolphins -3.5 vs Washington
The Skins head to Miami in an attempt to keep going their sneaky slide into the No2 draft pick and now that the Dolphins have finally played a game for 4 quarters instead of their usual 3, I fancy them to be a .500 team the rest of the season starting with a covering win on Sunday.

Jacksonville Jaguars -3 @ Indy
The Jags have lost 1 game by 2 scores +, the Colts 5.  The Colts are so damn bad they didn't score a point on offence at home last week, the bye will have given MJD a chance to rest up in prepartion of having a monster day here, as an added bonus Blaine Gabbert might even have developed some QB skills.

'When i'm back the Colts will rise HIGH'

Moneyline Picks
Buffalo Bills 2/1 @ Dallas
To put it plainly (i hope you've noticed by now that in depth wrtite ups are not really my thing) i think the margin the Bills offence better than the Cowboys O is greater than the margin the Cowboys D is better than the Bills D. I'm willing to forgive last weeks thrashing by the Jets and point to the fact that their other 2 losses were at the hands of 6-2 teams (Cinn, NYG).  This is a must win game for the Boys and we all know how Tony handles pressure, and this time he has to do it without 'i can see for' Miles Austin.

Detriot Lions 13/10 @ Chicago
No doubt, Da Bears were impressive Monday night in beating the literally defenceless Eagles. The Lions however should be hella prepared for this one coming off a bye AND a rest week against the Broncos.  Add the fact that i think Detriot is better on both sides of the ball, significantly so on offence, makes the 13/10 on Detriot, GOLD Jerry GOLD!!!


St Louis Rams 13/10 @ Cleveland
Brown(s) by name, Brown by nature.  I wouldn't back them to beat their own at the moment, nevermind Steven Jackson.

Totals Picks
New Orleans @ Atlanta UNDER 50
This game hasn't gone over since 2005. I think the Falcons D is good enough to make this a close game.

Is that Matt Ryan or Phil Mickelson???

New England @ New York UNDER 47.5
Brady is throwing picks and not putting up points, The J-E-T-S- JETS JETS JETS still have Mark Sanchez at QB
Minnesota @ Green Bay OVER 51
Can the Vikes been 1/2 competitive ?? I think they can given they're coming off their bye. If they are Green Bay will have to keep trying and will take the total over.

CHEEEEESSSSSSSEEEEEE

NFL WEEK 9

Advanced apologies for this weeks write up. Feeling bang out of blog writing creative juices, and overflowing with others.  Lets get back to winning ways after last weeks disappointment.

TOTALS PICKS

Miami @ Kansas UNDER 40.5
In the Matt Moore 'era' have averaged less than 13 points per game while their D has given up 62 points in them against offences comparable to Kansas City who are struggling for a  consistant offence without Charles.
Cincinnati @ Tennessee OVER 41.5
The Bengals have 20+ in all but 1 game, averaging over 30 in the last 3.  The Titans have to throw the ball because they have no running game.
Seattle @ Dallas  OVER 44
I'm hoping Seattle get the points in garbage time that the  Rams couldn't, if required of course.

HANDICAP PICKS
Houston -10.5 vs Cleveland
The first proper, functioning offence the Browns have faced basically all season, and the Browns don't have one.

Green Bay -5.5 @ San Diego
No explanation required. If you want one have a look at this betfair forum post
Philadelphia -8 vs Chicago
Yes DA BEARS are coming off a bye week but their offence is still Matt Forte and Matt Forte alone. If the Eagles offence and imparticularly top dawg Mike Vick play even close the level they played last week against the Cowboys it will be a similar result.

MONEYLINE PICKS

Pittsburgh 1.53 vs Baltimore
The Steelers are argably the 2nd best team in the NFL.  Baltimore look like they are when their on song, but they look Tebow awful when they're not.  Add the semi irrelevant  fact that the Ravens have never beaten the Steelers twice in a season and there's only 1 winner in this baw game.

Boy you've been a naughty QB

New York Jets 2.05 @ Buffalo
The people of New York might actually start to take notice of  their local team if Big Kev's Bills can beat the self proclaimed Superbowl XLVI winners. New York's top toe sucker will know how big the next 2 weeks are for the Jets, lose both games and they'll probabaly have to run the table to have a chance of making the playoffs. It's time for Shonn Greene and the Sanchize to step up.

San Francisco 1.54 @ Washington
I'll keep riding the foreskins until they come good, which they wont.

NFL Week 8

Sunday edits are in red . Follow @kjbetting  for bonus pre game and in running tips

Last week was a nearly week for the column.  The Chargers blew a 2 score lead in New Jersey and the Rams blew a first & goal from the 1 at the end of the game to keep the score under the points spread.   Having said that if you backed level stakes singles on all 9 picks you'd have made a 1.445pt profit.  For reference below is the level stakes profits/losses of trixies & singles so far this season.

***correction: spread trixies are actually +11.44 making the trixie total +27.34 pts ***8


TOTALS PICKS

New England @ Pittsburgh OVER 50.5
I smell a shootout, or a Pats rout, either way it goes over.
San Diego @ Kansas City OVER 44
The super Chargers have scored 20+ in every game this season but despite that fact Rivers has been getting some flack this past week, don't know why myself, maybe disgruntled fantasy owners.  The Chiefs have scored 20+ in their last 3 games through  a combination of offence and defence. I can easily see Bowe and V Jax having HUGE games here.

 

No caption neccesary

New Orleans @ St Louis OVER 47.5 
The Rams have robbed me in garbage time 2 weeks in a row, don't do it again.  Boller is starting again for the Rams does shake my confidence in this pick a bit as the Saints probably wont need to score more than 20 to win the game.  It will most likely be the same as last week, they will score as many as they like. If i was making the picks now i'd probably take another game to go unders, a game which will be revealed on twitter @kjbetting .


HANDICAP PICKS


NY Giants -10 vs Miami 
If you've seen Miami's offence recently you should understand this pick.

Tony pointing himself to the exit

 Buffalo Bills -5.5 vs Washington
The Skins are dropping like flies. The Bills of Toronto should be ok in the Rodgers center with Fred Jackson running wild on Washington, who could be crazy dark horses for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
San Francisco 49ers -8 vs Cleveland
San Francisco are coming off a bye week just like the first 2 picks going up agaist the 22nd ranked pass offence and the 29th  rushing offence. The browns may be no1 against the pass but GORE GORE GORE should be able to cover the spread.


MONEYLINE PICKS


Seattle Seahawks 13/10 vs Cincinnati
The Seahawks odds against any non 'elite' team is normally value. The Hawks will turn up the volume on the Bengals rookie QB, literally.

Dallas Cowboys 8/5 @ Philadelphia
The Cowboys have been a popular pick this week amongst the 'experts', popular for an 8/5 shot anyway, so they should be curtanties as mort would say, yes ?
Minnesota  8/5 @ Carolina
The best running back in the league taking on a team thats 2-5. IF the vikes can cover Steve Smith effectively they've a great shot at winning this game because Cam Newton will make mistakes. I think he's overhyped based on his fantasy stats rather than real life play.


all lines as at 23:22 on Wednesday

NFL WEEK 7

The big question this week is, can the Dolphins win ?? The big announcement is that KJBETTING has its own twitter account which is unsurprisingly @kjbetting . Look out for bonus tips and a link to the occasional Harry Nilsson song.

Denver 11/10 @ Miami
Tebowmania will run wild on the Dolphins defence, which got absolutely no pass rush on the Sanchize Monday night.  If they are even half as bad Tebow should find enough holes to make a few big plays. Denver coming off a bye should have little trouble containing Matt Moore whose only pass on Monday was one to Brandon Marshall.

Tebow 3:16 says I just whooped your ass

San Diego 4/5 @ New York Jets
The Jets win on Monday night was more to do with the Dolphins deficiencies than actual good play from the Jets. Facts are that the Dolphins strolled down to the Jets red zone 3 times in the first 20 minutes only to make a pigs ear of all 3 opportunities. I'm firmly of the belief that the Jets are not a good team and wont make the play offs this year and this game should rubber stamp that belief.


Atlanta 13/8 @ Detroit
The lions lost their first game last week, they'll lose their 2nd game this week if Best doesn't break off a couple of huge plays. 13/8 is very generous for the better team.

HANDICAP  PICKS

Green Bay -9 @ Minnesota
Looking good against da Bears defence that had stopped trying and the Green Bay Packers are 2 totally different propositions. Aaron Rodgers will give the Vikes something to Ponder.


New Orleans -14 vs Indianapolis
Sean Payton could have 2 shattered legs and 14 still wouldn't be enough, and to continue the wrestling theme this is how you no sell f*cking your legs up.

Baltimore -7.5 @ Jacksonville 
The Ravens have only once failed to score less than 29 and only once thus far conceded more than 20. The jags have only scored 20 once, and then the conceded 30.

TOTALS BETS

Pittsburgh @ Arizona  OVER 41.5
St Louis @ Dallas OVER 43.5
Chicago @ Tampa @ Wembley UNDER 44

New Wembley appearences. Tampa Bay 2 Liverpool 0

SEASON UPDATE

The weekly bets so far are showing a 37.1% ROI (+26.68 pts) if you picked 3 weekly trixies and a 31.1% ROI (+16.75 pts)  if every tip was backed for level stakes singles. I think that's pretty good  given that i pick 9 different games each week rather than concentrate on just a few.

I doubt anyone read them but here are my tips for the top rusher and receiver  that i posted before the season began (advised ew singles), and how they currently stand.

Top Rusher
MJD 16/1            572 yds (3rd)
McFadden 25/1   610 (1st)
Turner 12/1          499 (8th)
Bradshaw 66/1    390 (13th)

Top Receiver
Wallace 12/1        612 yds (4th)
C Johnson 10/1    564 (5th)
Bowe 33/1           420* (14th)
Marshall 33/1       424* (13th)

Welker leads with 785
* Had their bye week

My AFC division picks were posted HERE  and NFC picks HERE . I think it's fair to say i must've been under the influence when i made the NFC picks but the AFC picks look good.

Weekend Soccerball

If you read this or not, think the tips are crap or not, i dont really care. But make sure that you take advantage of the offers from Bet365 and Paddy Power this weekend, and easy £50 in your pockets if you play it right.


Premier league write ups have become a bit of a chore already, mainly due to how dull and predictable the top end of the league has become over the years and this year more than ever. City have become the team Liverpool would have become if Benitez had been given half decent backing in the summer of 2008, boring to watch but bloody effective. Man Utd are their usual rubbish selves but predictably still win every home game despite being outplayed and Chelsea seem to be back in the groove and Torres is beginning to look like a footballer again. I think they're being a touch underrated and 3/1 could be a decent bit of interest for the season.

Onto this week which sees 5 games on Saturday and 5 on Sunday (another reason why the league is losing its appeal to me) due to TV and Europa league on Thursday, why the fixtures are not doctored to minimise the number of Sunday games not televised i don't know, eg There are 3 Premier League teams in the Europa League, match them up to ensure no more than 2 games not on TV being played Sundays. Could even force sky to pick some of these games for TV , eg Spurs @ Stoke or Fulham seems a lot more interesting to me than QPR being torn a new one by Chelsea  ED.  drifted off track a bit here.

It's hard to spot real value in the 1X2 markets on Premier League games so i'm going for 4 trebles and a 4 timer on 4 jollies. totalling a  5 points stake.

Newcastle 8/13
Arsenal 4/7
Man Utd 11/10
Chelsea 2/5

Unbeaten Newcastle face Wigan who look DOOMED. Arsenal take on Stoke who have been smashed after their first 2 Europa games by Sunderland and Swansea so if Arsenal can't get a win there's something wrong.  Man Utd just win at home as stated above and Chelsea go to QPR who have only scored 2 goals in their first 4 home games. They'll have to double that to have a chance of anything this week.

NFL WEEK 6

Last week didn't go to plan but you can't change the past so it's onwards and hopefully upwards with this weeks picks.  I have shook them up a bit though, giving the totals picks top billing.

Season Totals, Trixies +12.03 pts , Singles +13.82 pts
(based on 3 1pt trixies every week (total 12 points) and 9 1pt singles)

TOTALS PICKS
Indianapolis @ Cincinnati OVER 40.5
The Curtis Painter 'era' has brought 41 points in 2 games for the Colts, both being defeats. 4 of the Bengals 5 games have gone over this line and the opposition has scored 20 on them in each of the last 2 weeks.

Dallas @ New England UNDER 55
Tony Romo after imploding last time out against the Lions wont be doing anything silly in this one, although knowing him he might do. The Patriots while were told have a poor defence hae only once given up more than 24 points and that was the freak game in Buffalo where Brady threw 4 picks. The line at 55 is a bit too high for me.

Wonder if the birds choke as much as Tony

Minnesota @ Chicago OVER 41.5
Both sides are averaging over 20 points  per game thus far, and so are their opponents.

HANDICAP PICKS
Pittsburgh -12 vs Jacksonville 
As reported at the start of the season Big Ben has gone a while without raping anyone, but that all ended when he raped the Titans for 5 touchdowns in a 38-17 win. Their other home game was also won by over 20, that being a 24-0 win over the Seahawks. The Jags are going to Heinz field on the back of 2 double didgit home defeats. Blaine Gabberts first road start was in a monsoon in Carolina with their only TD being a hail mary on the stroke of half time. This could be a monsoon of points for Steelers with Ben going to town like a father with his altar boys.

Baltimore -7.5 vs Houston
The Ravens have won their 2 homes games by 28 and 17, both against better teams than the Texans, who are reeling having lost super Mario Williams for the season.  A rested Ravens D should be able to stifle Daniels, Walter and Jones while a rested Ray Rice should be on for a good day against a D that even with Williams was already giving up 4.8 ypc.

Yes

New Orleans -4 @ Tampa Bay
The Saints have failed to score 30 just once so far, only managing 23 at Jacksonville.  The Bucs can count themselves lucky to have a winning record with 2 lucky wins against the Vikings and the Colts.  Blount is a doubt this week and Mike Williams has vanished this season. There's a chance that last weeks 48-3 loss was the real bucs.  Also Glazer owned if want anymore reason to hate them.

The company look

MONEYLINE PICKS 
New York Jets 1/3 vs Miami
Miami are going nowhere fast. It could be ugly but the Jets are going 2-3.

Philadelphia Eagles 5/6 @ Washington
Lose this one and i think they can forget the post season.  Without last weeks bad luck Vick will outscore Sexy Rexy and keep hope alive going into their bye.

Green Bay Packers 1/8 vs St Louis
This is why the moneyline picks are at the bottom this week.  As you may have noticed i pick in 9 seperate games every week. I didn't like any of the other games left and a winner is always better than a loser

It's my turn this week

Premier League Football

Season so far
34 bets
16 wins
18 losers
+1.96 pts


I'm drawing a total blank this week on the premier league. The weekend after international games is normally quiet, but not this quiet. Will hopefully be back next week. Just one bet in the Championship and that is

Middlesbrough 10/11 to beat Millwall


Good luck

NFL WEEK 5

Another poor effort at a write but i take that damn long researching the picks I'm shagged out to do a write up too.

MONEYLINE PICKS

Arizona Cardinals 6/5 @ Minnesota 
All 8 games of these 2 have been decided by 7 points or less so in the battles of the Andy Reid rejects I'll take the one he picked over the other.
Kansas City 6/5 @ Indy
Even Thomas Jones should be able to have a good games against the Indy D. If he doesn't Cassel to Bowe should be able to get the better of Curtis Painter who is somehow getting praised for his MNF performance in Tampa. He went 13/30 with a fumble and has a decimated O line in front of him.

The odd time the ball actually goes to him

Cincinnati Bengals 6/5 @ Jacksonville
Through 4 games the Bengals have the 3rd best pass D and the 7th best run D, which is no mean achievement against Hillis, Gore and Jackson. If they can hold MJD to an average game and make Blaine Gabbert beat them they'll win, with Benson running like a mad man because he knows he'll be taking 3 weeks off soon enough.

What?  wrong Benson? I'm confused ???

HANDICAP PICKS

Atlanta Falcons +6.5 vs Green Bay
Atlanta just don't lose at home, well except against Green Bay in the play offs, lets forget that one and remember that they did beat them in the regular season last year. Don't think Atlanta should get start at home to anyone.

Chicago Bears +5 vs Detriot
The Cowboys had the Lions beat last week until the bad half of Romo showed up. The Vikings had them beat in week 3 but let it slip. Should the bears get into a lead Forte will pound and pound and pound, he might just do that anyway.

Carolina Panthers +6.5 vs New Orleans
I think Cam can keep this close against the New Orleans D which is in one word, not good.

Totals Picks

Oakland @ Houston UNDER 49
New York @ New England UNDER 49 
Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo UNDER 50

NFL Bets So Far

4  weeks gone so far so if you'd followed blindly all 4 weeks you'd  have bet 12 trixies and/or 12 singles. Here's how it's gone.

Summary

Trixies -   48 pts staked , 19.19 pts profit  
Singles -  36 pts staked , 14.6 pts profit

NFL WEEK 4

Last week did not go according to plan, just 4 out the 9 tips given came good and 3 trixies on the 9 tips would have made a 12pt loss. However 9 singles would have just been a 1.57pt loss. So if you're just a singles backer it was a complete shithouse. So onto week 4, this will be quite a quick write up as i'm short on inspriation at the moment.

All this weeks pictures are from searches i made looking for pics that would've made a bit of sense.

MONEYLINE PICKS

New York Jets 33/20 @ Baltimore
Rex Ryan has put his foot in his mouth once again this season my proclaiming the Jets the champs already. Last week the Jets were losing to Oakland while the Ravens stuck it up the rams. Rex simply wont stand for 2 losses in a row, his boys will have to toe the line and nail a victory here. ffs

'Rex Ryan feet'

Detriot Lions 11/10 @ Dallas 
If you saw the Cowboys/Skins MNF game it should not be hard to understand this pick, Stafford to Megatron should demolish the Cowboys D. T RO will try his best, but that's rarely good enough against a decent offence.

Buffalo Bills 8/13 @ Cincinnati
The last week of the play off dream, before reality sets in

'Buffalo Bills winning'

HANDICAP PICKS

New Orleans Saints -7 @ Jacksonville
34, 30 & 40 are the Saints 3 totals thus far, The Jags 16, 3 & 10. Need i say more.

'Jack Del Rio wet'

Houston Texans -4 vs Pittsburgh
Even the 2 Ed's, Balls and Milliband are more convincing that the Steelers offence.


San Diego Chargers -7 vs Miami
If last week wasn't the kick up the arse that they needed then nothing will be, seeing Oakland might be half decent should also snap them into shape. Miami are a team crying out for a QB not called Chad.

'Chad'

Totals Picks

Eagles vs 49ers UNDER 44
Vick IS banged up but is likely to play and most likely wont be his usual self, the 49ers are borderline useless, i'm thinking something like 27-10

Colts vs Bucs OVER 40.5
The Colts gave a very credible effort against the Steelers but gave up plenty of points in their first 2 games. The Bucs could enjoy themselves in what will probably be the lowest rated MNF of the year.

'Bad MNF ratings'

Cardinals vs Giants OVER 44.5
Think this could turn into a real shootout, even just a bit of a shootout should take the total over 45



More thought has gone into these picks than would appear from the write up but as well as being short of inspiration i am SEETHING at politics, imparticular stupid f***ing lefties at both local and national level

Good luck and i'll try to do better next time

Weekend Football

The premier league rolls on into another weekend of drama, excitement, unpredictablity and bullshit opening lines for previews. Here are my bets, again all 1pt singles. Also again, google images from not quite what i expected.

Everton v Liverpool DRAW 23/10
King Kenny has drawn his last 2 Merseyside derbies as Liverpool manager, or course it's totally irrelevant that one of them was over 20 years ago.  Liverpool's best side would rout this Everton side but the King's idea of Liverpool's best side is different to everyone elses.  To me this game has the look of the 1991 classic, Liverpool totally dominant and Everton score every chance they get.

Still faster than Charlie Adam

Red Card 12/5
6 of the last 10 games between the 2 have had red cards , and non of those games had the chronically slow Charlie Adam or the chronically short fused Luis Suarez playing in them.

'Luis Suarez angry'

Man City to beat Blackburn 4/7
City wont have anyone refusing to go on as a substitute this time. They'll be dying to run rings around the worst team with the worst manager in the league.

2 of these 5 being draws would make a profit. All these games have the home team favourite at odds against.

Sunderland v West Brom DRAW 12/5
Wolves v Newcastle DRAW 12/5
Fulham v QPR DRAW 5/2
Swansea v Stoke DRAW 23/10
Spurs v Arsenal DRAW 5/2

'Wenger angry'

Record so far
26 bets
13 winners
13 losers
+1.59 pts

8 bets this week